* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINETEEN AL192020 09/12/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 42 45 49 57 64 71 75 71 65 57 50 39 31 25 24 V (KT) LAND 35 39 42 45 49 57 64 71 75 71 49 36 30 28 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 41 44 47 53 60 67 68 65 47 34 29 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 14 17 14 9 15 15 23 18 23 23 39 47 55 52 48 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -6 -5 -4 -2 -7 -2 -4 2 -2 0 -2 -3 -2 0 1 SHEAR DIR 320 301 313 316 295 269 249 261 257 261 244 243 243 246 248 269 279 SST (C) 30.0 30.3 30.2 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.7 30.1 30.1 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 169 171 171 165 163 161 158 155 155 161 168 169 167 164 165 166 164 ADJ. POT. INT. 148 156 154 146 142 137 132 128 127 131 137 138 134 129 130 132 131 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 -52.6 -52.4 -52.1 -51.8 -51.7 -51.6 -51.6 -52.1 -52.8 -53.0 -52.9 -52.9 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 7 8 5 6 3 5 4 7 2 5 2 6 700-500 MB RH 61 60 57 59 62 61 64 61 67 68 73 64 59 52 52 47 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 13 14 14 16 17 20 21 19 17 13 11 8 7 4 5 850 MB ENV VOR 20 21 0 -8 16 5 41 10 12 -30 3 -2 19 -29 -23 -71 -61 200 MB DIV 8 21 20 8 28 42 30 30 44 51 64 32 30 18 -5 -16 -40 700-850 TADV -4 0 -2 -2 0 1 0 11 12 22 9 5 0 -1 -4 -2 -4 LAND (KM) 29 66 118 173 234 218 164 85 55 23 -28 -92 -150 -177 -144 -141 -178 LAT (DEG N) 25.5 25.9 26.3 26.8 27.2 28.0 28.7 29.2 29.6 30.0 30.5 31.2 32.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 81.5 82.4 83.3 84.2 85.1 86.4 87.5 88.2 88.7 89.2 89.4 89.2 88.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 9 9 8 7 5 3 3 3 3 4 3 0 1 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 51 78 56 37 34 35 57 37 30 35 33 5 5 5 5 5 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 507 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 14. 18. 21. 24. 26. 28. 29. 30. 30. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. -1. -4. -9. -15. -24. -31. -36. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 7. 4. 0. -5. -8. -13. -14. -17. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 10. 14. 22. 29. 36. 40. 36. 30. 22. 15. 4. -4. -10. -11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 25.5 81.5 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL192020 NINETEEN 09/12/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.61 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 51.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.34 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.41 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.41 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 152.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.78 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.3 27.5 to 139.6 0.77 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.22 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.7% 18.7% 13.2% 10.2% 8.8% 11.2% 12.2% 17.3% Logistic: 8.7% 32.0% 18.6% 10.5% 5.8% 24.3% 37.6% 33.9% Bayesian: 2.8% 16.6% 3.6% 1.6% 0.4% 1.6% 1.4% 0.1% Consensus: 6.1% 22.4% 11.8% 7.4% 5.0% 12.4% 17.1% 17.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL192020 NINETEEN 09/12/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL192020 NINETEEN 09/12/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 39 42 45 49 57 64 71 75 71 49 36 30 28 27 27 27 18HR AGO 35 34 37 40 44 52 59 66 70 66 44 31 25 23 22 22 22 12HR AGO 35 32 31 34 38 46 53 60 64 60 38 25 19 17 16 16 16 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 29 37 44 51 55 51 29 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT