* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINETEEN AL192020 09/12/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 40 49 56 66 69 69 61 54 47 40 32 28 24 V (KT) LAND 30 35 37 39 43 52 59 70 72 61 43 32 28 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 34 35 37 39 44 50 56 59 50 38 30 28 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 15 11 12 17 12 12 18 19 22 22 24 35 43 56 46 43 46 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -4 -4 -3 -4 -3 -4 -2 0 3 0 -5 -6 4 0 0 SHEAR DIR 332 315 306 317 313 274 272 236 264 255 262 243 253 253 263 286 299 SST (C) 29.8 30.2 30.3 30.0 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.9 30.7 30.8 30.7 30.7 30.5 30.0 30.0 POT. INT. (KT) 165 171 171 169 163 161 158 156 155 165 168 167 168 169 169 167 168 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 153 155 150 143 138 133 130 128 137 148 146 145 149 145 134 134 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.9 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.2 -52.2 -51.6 -52.0 -51.5 -51.8 -51.8 -52.7 -53.1 -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 8 9 6 7 3 6 3 6 3 7 1 6 0 700-500 MB RH 62 62 60 58 58 65 62 65 63 67 67 60 57 52 47 39 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 13 13 14 17 17 20 21 21 17 13 11 10 8 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR 22 24 23 -1 -8 27 10 46 -3 -2 -30 -6 -16 -16 -85 -100 -110 200 MB DIV -5 11 26 24 16 62 14 43 32 50 32 47 15 26 -31 -19 -27 700-850 TADV -9 -1 0 -1 0 1 -1 3 14 10 13 0 0 -4 -6 -3 -8 LAND (KM) -12 26 89 131 188 191 171 95 40 -3 -26 -88 -114 -205 -340 -458 -548 LAT (DEG N) 25.6 25.9 26.2 26.7 27.2 28.1 28.8 29.2 29.5 29.9 30.6 31.1 31.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 81.1 82.0 82.8 83.7 84.6 86.0 87.1 88.1 88.8 89.6 90.3 90.6 90.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 9 9 7 5 4 3 5 4 2 2 5 6 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 49 64 84 45 33 31 46 38 30 35 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 3. 8. 15. 19. 23. 27. 29. 32. 35. 36. 37. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 1. -2. -5. -10. -16. -24. -32. -36. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 8. 8. 8. 2. -4. -8. -10. -12. -13. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 10. 19. 26. 36. 39. 39. 31. 24. 17. 10. 2. -2. -6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 25.6 81.1 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL192020 NINETEEN 09/12/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.59 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 55.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.36 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.27 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.38 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 139.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.80 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.82 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.20 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.0% 15.4% 11.0% 8.2% 6.9% 9.7% 10.3% 16.4% Logistic: 2.7% 9.0% 4.2% 1.6% 0.6% 6.1% 18.5% 18.9% Bayesian: 0.7% 2.8% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 9.1% 5.3% 3.3% 2.5% 5.4% 9.7% 11.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 6.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL192020 NINETEEN 09/12/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL192020 NINETEEN 09/12/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 35 37 39 43 52 59 70 72 61 43 32 28 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 37 46 53 64 66 55 37 26 22 21 21 21 21 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 32 41 48 59 61 50 32 21 17 16 16 16 16 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 33 40 51 53 42 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT