* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINETEEN AL192020 09/12/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 38 40 48 55 63 68 71 66 62 55 49 40 39 35 V (KT) LAND 30 27 31 34 36 43 51 59 64 67 61 38 30 28 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 27 30 32 34 38 42 48 53 56 54 36 29 28 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 14 11 11 14 9 15 15 24 18 27 28 43 49 57 35 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -4 -5 -4 -4 -5 -4 -7 -3 -2 1 -5 -1 -5 -5 2 0 SHEAR DIR 321 324 317 305 316 293 273 247 253 243 256 246 247 252 257 272 306 SST (C) 30.0 29.8 30.2 30.3 29.9 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.7 30.4 30.8 30.8 30.9 30.9 30.9 30.3 POT. INT. (KT) 169 165 171 171 167 159 158 156 154 161 168 169 169 169 169 169 169 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 146 154 156 147 136 133 129 128 133 143 151 151 152 149 149 138 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.2 -52.9 -52.7 -52.8 -52.6 -52.6 -52.3 -52.1 -52.0 -52.1 -52.2 -52.7 -53.9 -53.8 -53.5 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 9 9 9 7 8 4 6 4 6 4 7 4 7 2 700-500 MB RH 61 62 62 59 57 62 62 63 60 64 65 65 56 56 52 53 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 11 11 10 12 12 13 14 16 14 12 9 8 6 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR 14 15 22 20 -1 16 -7 42 2 5 -41 -19 -38 -38 -98 -84 -144 200 MB DIV 2 0 13 29 18 30 42 24 30 27 38 15 8 17 0 -11 -26 700-850 TADV -3 -7 -2 0 -2 0 -1 3 7 4 11 5 0 -1 -2 0 -9 LAND (KM) 10 -21 19 66 126 156 145 113 63 33 9 -58 -164 -281 -370 -458 -525 LAT (DEG N) 25.6 25.9 26.2 26.7 27.2 28.3 28.9 29.3 29.7 30.0 30.2 30.7 31.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 80.2 81.1 82.0 83.0 83.9 85.3 86.5 87.3 88.2 89.1 90.0 90.7 91.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 10 9 7 5 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 4 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 52 45 66 81 40 27 34 36 30 35 14 6 6 6 6 6 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 560 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 3. 8. 15. 19. 23. 26. 29. 32. 35. 36. 37. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 3. 1. -3. -6. -12. -20. -29. -33. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 1. -2. -7. -8. -11. -11. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 10. 18. 25. 33. 38. 41. 36. 32. 25. 19. 10. 9. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 25.6 80.2 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL192020 NINETEEN 09/12/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.62 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 56.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.37 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.41 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.40 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 136.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.80 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.6 27.5 to 139.6 0.83 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.20 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.3% 17.1% 12.2% 9.3% 8.0% 10.4% 11.1% 17.1% Logistic: 6.9% 29.4% 19.5% 13.3% 6.9% 26.8% 36.8% 31.8% Bayesian: 0.9% 4.6% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.8% 1.4% 0.1% Consensus: 4.4% 17.0% 11.0% 7.6% 5.0% 12.7% 16.4% 16.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL192020 NINETEEN 09/12/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL192020 NINETEEN 09/12/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 27 31 34 36 43 51 59 64 67 61 38 30 28 27 27 27 18HR AGO 30 29 33 36 38 45 53 61 66 69 63 40 32 30 29 29 29 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 31 38 46 54 59 62 56 33 25 23 22 22 22 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 29 37 45 50 53 47 24 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT