* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINETEEN AL192020 09/12/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 41 44 50 58 65 67 65 63 58 55 52 46 42 40 V (KT) LAND 30 33 29 33 36 42 51 57 59 57 56 36 30 28 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 29 32 34 39 44 49 53 53 52 35 29 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 12 12 10 11 10 9 14 21 19 23 25 34 46 57 51 45 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -5 -4 -6 -3 -3 -4 -5 -3 -5 -2 -1 0 -5 -8 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 336 319 324 313 304 312 261 253 230 254 248 257 241 254 251 259 262 SST (C) 30.0 29.9 29.7 30.2 30.4 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.5 30.0 30.7 30.8 30.7 30.9 30.9 30.9 POT. INT. (KT) 168 167 163 171 171 159 157 155 154 157 167 169 170 169 169 169 168 ADJ. POT. INT. 148 146 144 154 158 138 132 130 127 129 138 151 153 148 151 148 146 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -52.9 -52.7 -52.9 -52.5 -52.6 -52.3 -52.7 -52.6 -52.8 -53.1 -54.2 -54.3 -54.4 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.4 -0.2 -0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 10 9 8 8 4 6 2 5 2 7 3 7 0 6 700-500 MB RH 63 62 61 60 60 60 65 60 60 57 62 63 57 56 57 57 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 9 10 10 10 11 10 10 8 8 7 5 5 4 3 4 850 MB ENV VOR 20 15 14 22 25 -4 23 9 32 -15 -25 -55 -35 -59 -71 -101 -70 200 MB DIV 6 7 4 10 28 11 69 8 30 -2 20 10 32 0 19 -17 -7 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -5 -1 0 2 -1 2 -1 3 1 3 -3 2 2 -8 -5 LAND (KM) 84 4 -30 12 61 182 112 108 59 50 3 -39 -176 -278 -392 -490 -569 LAT (DEG N) 25.6 25.8 25.9 26.3 26.7 28.0 28.8 29.4 29.7 29.9 30.2 30.7 31.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 79.4 80.2 81.0 82.0 82.9 84.7 85.8 86.9 87.9 88.7 89.4 90.4 91.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 9 10 8 6 5 4 3 4 6 6 5 5 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 56 50 45 65 88 29 28 31 29 31 36 6 6 6 6 6 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 651 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 8. 15. 20. 23. 26. 29. 32. 35. 36. 37. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 5. 3. -0. -4. -8. -15. -23. -30. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -10. -10. -11. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 14. 20. 28. 35. 37. 35. 33. 28. 25. 22. 16. 12. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 25.6 79.4 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL192020 NINETEEN 09/12/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.68 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 60.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.40 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.49 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.36 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 127.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.81 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.0 27.5 to 139.6 0.83 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.19 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.5% 19.7% 14.0% 10.8% 9.5% 11.4% 12.6% 19.6% Logistic: 8.4% 36.9% 25.0% 16.8% 8.8% 35.5% 48.5% 43.7% Bayesian: 2.0% 19.9% 7.5% 1.5% 0.3% 3.5% 7.9% 0.3% Consensus: 5.6% 25.5% 15.5% 9.7% 6.2% 16.8% 23.0% 21.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL192020 NINETEEN 09/12/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL192020 NINETEEN 09/12/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 29 33 36 42 51 57 59 57 56 36 30 28 27 27 27 18HR AGO 30 29 25 29 32 38 47 53 55 53 52 32 26 24 23 23 23 12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 33 39 48 54 56 54 53 33 27 25 24 24 24 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 29 38 44 46 44 43 23 17 15 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT