* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * REBEKAH AL192019 10/31/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 41 41 39 39 38 38 39 39 38 37 36 V (KT) LAND 40 41 41 41 39 39 38 38 39 39 38 37 36 V (KT) LGEM 40 40 40 41 41 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 14 20 23 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -3 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 238 262 272 302 342 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 19.1 19.8 18.8 19.3 19.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 79 81 78 80 80 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 72 74 72 73 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -57.2 -58.0 -58.9 -59.9 -60.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 2.6 1.4 0.5 1.0 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 40 33 28 29 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 14 10 7 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 115 43 -20 -63 -96 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -11 -8 -16 -49 -47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -12 -12 -16 -13 -23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1620 1775 1740 1552 1364 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 41.0 41.2 41.3 41.2 41.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 34.5 32.3 30.1 27.8 25.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 17 17 18 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 16 CX,CY: 15/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 809 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 0. -4. -7. -10. -12. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 3. 5. 8. 10. 14. 16. 19. 23. 26. 28. 29. 31. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -3. -6. -9. -11. -14. -17. -19. -20. -22. -22. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 41.0 34.5 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL192019 REBEKAH 10/31/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.34 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.60 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.47 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.51 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 32.9 27.5 to 139.6 0.05 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -26.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.02 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 297.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.63 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.4% 9.2% 7.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% Logistic: 1.3% 1.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% Consensus: 1.9% 3.4% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 999.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 5.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL192019 REBEKAH 10/31/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 41 41 41 39 39 38 38 39 39 38 37 36 18HR AGO 40 39 39 39 37 37 36 36 37 37 36 35 34 12HR AGO 40 37 36 36 34 34 33 33 34 34 33 32 31 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 28 28 27 27 28 28 27 26 25 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT