* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * REBEKAH AL192019 10/31/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 43 43 43 39 31 22 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 42 43 43 43 39 31 22 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 40 41 41 42 42 43 45 45 42 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 18 19 17 15 18 32 40 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 0 -2 -5 -4 -2 -4 -2 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 212 212 221 233 252 303 23 48 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 20.2 19.5 19.6 20.0 20.1 20.3 21.0 21.9 21.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 80 79 79 80 81 83 87 90 89 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 73 73 72 72 73 76 80 83 82 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.5 -55.7 -56.7 -57.9 -59.6 -60.2 -59.8 -58.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 2.8 3.3 3.0 2.5 1.5 1.1 -0.1 -0.6 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 50 47 41 34 35 42 48 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 23 20 16 14 8 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 232 186 153 79 25 -69 -119 -134 -96 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 0 -10 -3 -19 -22 -45 -60 -50 -42 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -9 -16 -9 -9 -9 -16 -31 -22 -22 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1433 1498 1575 1683 1794 1672 1221 890 452 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 38.4 39.1 39.7 39.9 40.0 39.5 38.1 35.7 34.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 39.7 37.9 36.2 34.5 32.9 28.6 23.2 18.7 13.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 15 14 13 14 20 22 21 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):115/ 11 CX,CY: 10/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 862 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. -1. -8. -11. -15. -18. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 16. 18. 21. 22. 23. 25. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -4. -7. -13. -21. -27. -29. -31. -33. -34. -34. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 3. 3. -1. -9. -18. -25. -27. -29. -30. -31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 38.4 39.7 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL192019 REBEKAH 10/31/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.48 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.45 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.47 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.47 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 32.6 27.5 to 139.6 0.05 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -10.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.09 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 197.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.73 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.4% 8.9% 7.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 1.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 3.4% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% 9.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL192019 REBEKAH 10/31/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL192019 REBEKAH 10/31/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 42 43 43 43 39 31 22 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 40 39 40 40 40 36 28 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 36 36 32 24 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 30 26 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT