* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * RINA AL192017 11/09/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 43 42 41 39 33 23 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 40 43 42 41 35 32 31 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 40 38 37 35 34 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 31 33 39 30 45 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 7 12 11 4 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 250 233 236 239 257 305 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 8.8 13.0 11.3 10.5 11.8 13.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 70 75 74 73 74 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 69 73 72 72 72 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -60.4 -61.5 -62.0 -62.5 -62.2 -59.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.6 -0.6 -0.7 -0.6 -0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 73 65 62 60 59 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 25 23 17 12 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 63 7 -23 -50 -42 -35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 91 107 91 27 -9 -39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 98 57 51 -55 -59 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 525 758 1060 1416 905 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 45.5 48.5 51.4 53.0 54.6 54.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 46.5 42.6 38.8 31.3 23.9 6.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 31 39 42 48 49 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 23 CX,CY: 8/ 22 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 713 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -11. -11. -10. -9. -9. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 5. 7. 10. 10. 3. -9. -21. -31. -42. -52. -61. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 13. 14. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 6. 10. 14. 19. 24. 26. 30. 33. 37. 38. 40. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 0. -3. -8. -12. -14. -16. -17. -18. -19. -20. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 3. 2. 1. -1. -7. -17. -25. -32. -37. -45. -52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 45.5 46.5 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL192017 RINA 11/09/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 35.6 30.1 to 2.9 0.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.4 to -3.0 0.65 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 36.6 to 2.8 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.49 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 31.7 28.4 to 139.6 0.03 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.43 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 113.2 961.4 to -67.1 0.82 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL192017 RINA 11/09/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL192017 RINA 11/09/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 40 43 42 41 35 32 31 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 40 39 42 41 40 34 31 30 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 35 34 28 25 24 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 29 23 20 19 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT