* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * RINA AL192017 11/08/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 46 50 54 51 41 35 29 25 21 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 44 46 50 54 51 41 35 29 25 21 DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 45 44 44 45 45 43 40 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 22 25 30 41 47 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 5 9 11 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 270 268 252 237 225 242 274 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 21.4 17.4 12.5 10.8 13.7 10.4 12.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 87 76 71 72 75 73 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 79 72 69 70 73 72 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -57.2 -58.8 -60.0 -61.0 -61.5 -61.6 -59.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.1 -0.1 -0.4 -0.6 -1.3 -1.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 67 73 67 60 53 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 19 20 23 24 18 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 30 42 64 18 -18 -26 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 23 52 97 114 100 17 -24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 41 37 64 53 27 5 -58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 814 661 562 656 851 1326 443 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 40.0 42.0 44.0 46.8 49.6 54.1 56.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 49.0 48.0 47.0 44.2 41.4 30.3 15.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 19 21 28 34 37 41 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 18 CX,CY: -1/ 18 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 809 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -8. -10. -13. -14. -14. -14. -14. -13. -14. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 1. -9. -19. -27. -35. -44. -51. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 14. 15. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 5. 8. 11. 16. 20. 23. 26. 29. 33. 34. 36. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 2. 3. -3. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. 1. 5. 9. 6. -4. -10. -16. -20. -24. -30. -35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 40.0 49.0 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL192017 RINA 11/08/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.0 30.1 to 2.9 0.08 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.4 to -3.0 0.48 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 36.6 to 2.8 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.63 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 27.7 28.4 to 139.6 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 77.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.51 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 152.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.79 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 96.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.03 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL192017 RINA 11/08/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL192017 RINA 11/08/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 44 46 50 54 51 41 35 29 25 21 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 46 50 54 51 41 35 29 25 21 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 45 49 46 36 30 24 20 16 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 39 36 26 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT