* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RINA AL192017 11/07/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 40 45 47 53 59 59 51 49 47 43 39 V (KT) LAND 35 37 40 45 47 53 59 59 51 49 47 43 39 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 37 39 41 43 46 47 48 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 20 21 24 22 23 19 25 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 0 -2 0 0 4 8 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 281 274 270 278 280 278 264 251 238 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.7 24.1 23.4 22.8 22.5 19.4 15.4 11.9 10.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 104 101 96 93 92 82 75 72 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 92 90 86 83 82 76 72 70 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.5 -55.5 -55.2 -55.2 -55.8 -59.1 -61.3 -62.2 -60.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 1.1 0.7 0.5 0.8 0.0 -0.4 -1.3 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 2 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 60 64 68 64 60 65 65 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 16 18 21 20 20 21 19 16 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 14 28 29 39 29 27 0 -44 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 14 34 35 10 11 38 83 61 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 19 25 26 27 26 47 80 90 -93 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1695 1526 1360 1190 1026 762 843 1278 1171 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.7 33.3 34.9 36.6 38.2 41.8 46.2 50.4 54.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 49.5 49.1 48.8 48.5 48.2 46.4 41.9 35.5 28.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 16 17 17 18 23 28 30 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 9 CX,CY: 2/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 647 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 2. -6. -12. -17. -22. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 11. 12. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 13. 16. 21. 23. 25. 25. 27. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 4. 4. 6. 3. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 10. 12. 18. 24. 24. 16. 14. 12. 8. 4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 31.7 49.5 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL192017 RINA 11/07/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.4 30.1 to 2.9 0.32 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.9 2.4 to -3.0 0.80 2.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.53 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.35 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 51.8 28.4 to 139.6 0.21 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.24 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 141.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.80 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.8% 11.2% 9.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 0.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 4.0% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL192017 RINA 11/07/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL192017 RINA 11/07/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 40 45 47 53 59 59 51 49 47 43 39 18HR AGO 35 34 37 42 44 50 56 56 48 46 44 40 36 12HR AGO 35 32 31 36 38 44 50 50 42 40 38 34 30 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 33 39 39 31 29 27 23 19 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT