* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINETEEN AL192017 11/07/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 42 46 51 59 64 68 62 51 35 31 26 V (KT) LAND 35 38 42 46 51 59 64 68 62 51 35 31 26 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 40 43 46 50 51 50 48 47 47 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 23 23 22 22 18 25 21 23 43 57 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -1 -1 0 3 1 6 7 7 25 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 291 285 282 274 276 269 263 262 262 267 293 N/A N/A SST (C) 25.5 25.0 24.5 23.8 23.2 22.2 18.9 16.1 12.2 12.2 12.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 108 106 103 99 95 91 80 76 73 74 75 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 93 93 91 88 86 82 74 72 72 73 73 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.3 -55.7 -55.5 -55.4 -55.5 -57.2 -59.2 -61.7 -62.7 -62.6 -56.5 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 1.2 1.4 1.2 0.5 -0.2 -0.3 -0.8 -1.1 -1.6 -1.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 54 55 59 61 63 57 59 50 47 49 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 13 15 17 20 21 21 15 9 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 1 4 14 25 18 32 7 -26 -89 -86 46 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -2 -5 9 26 43 60 42 68 3 -12 -32 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 13 19 24 24 29 59 87 36 15 -56 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1875 1752 1629 1460 1293 965 773 927 1442 758 25 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.0 31.2 32.3 33.9 35.5 39.0 42.6 46.4 50.4 54.0 57.2 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 50.0 49.8 49.5 49.2 48.9 47.6 45.2 40.7 33.2 21.6 6.4 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 12 14 16 17 19 23 28 36 43 45 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 4 CX,CY: 2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 595 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 1. -3. -9. -21. -27. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 11. 14. 18. 22. 25. 26. 28. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 5. 9. 10. 11. 3. -6. -11. -11. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 16. 24. 29. 33. 27. 16. 0. -4. -9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 30.0 50.0 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL192017 NINETEEN 11/07/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.4 30.1 to 2.9 0.28 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.6 2.4 to -3.0 0.74 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.41 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.35 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 55.4 28.4 to 139.6 0.24 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.21 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 181.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.76 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 84.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.16 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.8% 10.8% 8.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 1.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 3.9% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL192017 NINETEEN 11/07/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL192017 NINETEEN 11/07/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 38 42 46 51 59 64 68 62 51 35 31 26 18HR AGO 35 34 38 42 47 55 60 64 58 47 31 27 22 12HR AGO 35 32 31 35 40 48 53 57 51 40 24 20 15 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 30 38 43 47 41 30 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT