* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINETEEN AL192017 11/06/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 39 43 54 60 62 57 41 25 20 DIS V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 39 43 54 60 62 57 41 25 20 DIS V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 34 37 43 46 47 47 45 43 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 21 23 22 23 23 18 23 51 59 55 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -2 0 -2 4 3 -2 8 18 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 296 289 283 281 276 279 273 252 262 279 285 N/A N/A SST (C) 25.8 25.3 24.8 24.1 23.4 22.3 18.6 15.5 11.2 12.0 12.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 110 108 105 101 97 92 81 77 72 72 72 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 95 94 93 91 87 84 77 74 71 70 69 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.7 -56.1 -55.5 -55.0 -55.2 -56.6 -59.6 -61.7 -62.3 -60.6 -56.3 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.7 1.3 1.5 1.2 0.0 -0.2 0.0 -0.5 -0.9 -0.7 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 52 54 57 60 64 55 56 50 51 50 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 12 13 14 20 21 22 19 13 10 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 12 3 3 11 21 21 -6 -44 -105 -40 -5 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 5 -1 -9 8 29 36 66 41 1 -14 -33 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 8 16 18 19 33 -2 1 -59 -79 -50 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1929 1815 1703 1521 1340 978 807 1140 1233 598 157 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.5 30.6 31.6 33.3 35.0 38.8 43.2 48.1 52.8 55.9 57.3 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 50.1 49.9 49.7 49.4 49.2 47.8 44.1 37.5 28.5 18.7 8.7 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 11 14 17 18 23 30 35 35 30 28 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 3 CX,CY: 2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 597 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 2. -5. -16. -28. -36. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 11. 14. 18. 22. 24. 25. 26. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. 2. 8. 10. 10. 6. -3. -7. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 24. 30. 32. 27. 11. -5. -10. -16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 29.5 50.1 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL192017 NINETEEN 11/06/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.3 30.1 to 2.9 0.32 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.4 to -3.0 0.68 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.43 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.2 28.4 to 139.6 0.30 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.17 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 159.2 961.4 to -67.1 0.78 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 95.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.04 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.5% 9.1% 7.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 1.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 3.5% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL192017 NINETEEN 11/06/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL192017 NINETEEN 11/06/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 35 39 43 54 60 62 57 41 25 20 DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 32 36 40 51 57 59 54 38 22 17 DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 34 45 51 53 48 32 16 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 35 41 43 38 22 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT