* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINETEEN AL192017 11/06/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 38 42 49 59 66 59 37 25 20 DIS V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 38 42 49 59 66 59 37 25 20 DIS V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 34 36 42 48 50 46 42 40 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 16 20 21 20 20 18 34 53 57 28 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 -1 -3 0 7 4 5 17 10 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 303 299 292 286 278 270 256 234 239 257 271 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.0 25.6 25.2 24.6 24.1 22.9 19.8 15.3 11.1 11.8 10.3 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 112 109 107 103 101 95 84 76 74 74 73 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 95 94 93 92 90 86 78 74 72 72 72 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.7 -56.6 -56.1 -55.3 -54.9 -55.1 -57.5 -59.6 -60.0 -56.7 -51.4 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.9 1.5 1.8 0.2 -0.5 -0.5 -0.7 -0.4 0.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 53 52 56 57 64 60 55 44 36 53 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 10 10 11 13 19 21 16 7 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 11 12 4 -3 12 25 35 -13 -74 13 162 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 6 7 -6 -9 16 27 65 50 6 6 -28 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 5 9 13 17 26 44 65 1 -129 -13 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1946 1878 1810 1657 1504 1103 759 836 1414 825 342 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.3 30.0 30.6 32.0 33.4 37.2 41.4 46.2 51.5 56.5 61.1 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 50.5 50.2 49.9 49.8 49.8 49.2 47.1 42.0 33.7 22.2 8.3 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 10 14 17 21 26 35 40 43 41 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 3 CX,CY: 1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 609 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 6. 2. -6. -17. -25. -33. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 13. 16. 19. 20. 20. 21. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 9. 12. 5. -7. -11. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 19. 29. 36. 29. 7. -5. -10. -15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 29.3 50.5 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL192017 NINETEEN 11/06/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.5 30.1 to 2.9 0.43 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.4 to -3.0 0.64 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.31 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.9 28.4 to 139.6 0.31 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.15 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 162.2 961.4 to -67.1 0.78 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 88.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.11 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.0% 8.7% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 1.8% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 3.5% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL192017 NINETEEN 11/06/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL192017 NINETEEN 11/06/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 35 38 42 49 59 66 59 37 25 20 DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 32 35 39 46 56 63 56 34 22 17 DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 33 40 50 57 50 28 16 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 31 41 48 41 19 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT