* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RENE AL182020 09/11/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 34 35 36 37 37 36 33 31 29 30 29 30 31 34 37 V (KT) LAND 35 34 34 35 36 37 37 36 33 31 29 30 29 30 31 34 37 V (KT) LGEM 35 34 34 34 35 37 37 36 33 30 28 26 26 26 28 30 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 2 2 7 9 14 26 32 33 26 23 13 15 16 15 21 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -1 -1 0 1 5 1 5 6 1 2 2 0 -1 -1 -5 SHEAR DIR 80 139 233 299 299 290 301 296 303 322 350 358 337 313 311 297 303 SST (C) 26.5 26.8 26.6 26.6 26.5 27.3 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.8 28.1 28.1 28.8 28.6 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 119 123 120 121 119 128 128 127 124 127 128 132 137 137 147 143 141 ADJ. POT. INT. 111 114 111 111 110 116 112 108 102 107 109 115 120 120 126 120 117 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.5 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -53.0 -53.3 -53.9 -53.7 -53.5 -53.2 -52.8 -53.0 -53.5 -53.6 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 -0.1 0.4 -0.5 -0.5 -0.7 -1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 9 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 55 53 51 51 48 51 55 59 54 47 43 37 34 34 34 35 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 11 10 10 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 3 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 55 48 44 21 -4 -17 -75 -100 -103 -91 -95 -89 -105 -87 -90 -68 -32 200 MB DIV -18 -3 -7 -13 -8 -16 -7 -13 -24 -49 -43 -25 0 14 1 22 11 700-850 TADV 0 3 7 1 -1 8 8 10 5 -4 -13 -9 -9 -8 -6 -7 -5 LAND (KM) 2196 2162 2137 2141 2154 2212 2168 2211 2219 2206 2125 1993 1838 1678 1558 1517 1550 LAT (DEG N) 20.0 20.5 21.0 21.7 22.4 24.2 25.9 27.2 27.5 27.3 26.7 26.2 26.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 39.4 40.5 41.6 42.6 43.7 45.3 46.3 46.4 46.2 46.5 47.1 48.3 50.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 12 12 11 8 4 0 3 5 6 8 8 6 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 3 4 3 3 3 17 14 15 14 14 14 15 35 24 39 31 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 633 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 12. 15. 17. 18. 19. 19. 19. 19. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. -1. -4. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -9. -9. -12. -15. -17. -20. -20. -21. -20. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -4. -6. -5. -6. -5. -4. -1. 2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 20.0 39.4 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182020 RENE 09/11/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.91 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.02 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.70 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.59 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 276.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.65 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.6 27.5 to 139.6 0.44 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.09 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 36.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.64 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.4% 16.8% 12.7% 10.1% 0.0% 11.4% 10.5% 7.9% Logistic: 2.3% 9.4% 6.6% 1.4% 0.4% 1.5% 1.0% 0.7% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 8.8% 6.5% 3.8% 0.1% 4.3% 3.8% 2.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182020 RENE 09/11/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182020 RENE 09/11/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 34 34 35 36 37 37 36 33 31 29 30 29 30 31 34 37 18HR AGO 35 34 34 35 36 37 37 36 33 31 29 30 29 30 31 34 37 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 33 34 34 33 30 28 26 27 26 27 28 31 34 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 27 27 26 23 21 19 20 19 20 21 24 27 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT