* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAULETTE AL172020 09/23/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 43 40 38 29 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 45 43 40 38 30 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 46 45 44 42 33 29 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 29 25 21 27 34 36 39 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 10 6 6 8 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 229 257 304 301 301 293 279 262 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 22.6 22.2 22.1 22.2 22.1 21.5 28.1 28.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 90 88 88 89 91 92 147 150 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 79 77 78 79 82 88 147 150 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -54.2 -54.5 -54.7 -55.0 -54.9 -54.0 -52.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 1.2 1.4 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 0 1 1 0 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 48 47 47 46 40 35 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 13 11 9 10 8 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -17 -20 -19 -33 -63 -72 -14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 8 -40 -23 -21 -22 -27 -20 -315 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 -8 -20 -29 -57 -92 -143 -105 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 747 650 540 406 233 -22 -233 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 36.2 36.7 37.2 37.5 37.7 37.0 34.6 33.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 17.2 16.2 15.0 13.5 11.5 4.4 -4.7 -14.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 14 20 35 40 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 10 CX,CY: 9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 621 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -0. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -4. -12. -18. -24. -29. -33. -36. -40. -44. -46. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -4. -4. -6. -10. -13. -15. -16. -18. -18. -19. -18. -18. -18. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -2. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -6. -9. -9. -7. -6. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -2. -5. -7. -16. -24. -36. -40. -42. -43. -40. -40. -40. -40. -38. -36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 36.2 17.2 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172020 PAULETTE 09/23/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.10 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.69 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.59 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 210.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.72 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 34.0 27.5 to 139.6 0.06 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -19.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.05 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 97.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.02 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.5% 12.4% 9.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 4.2% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172020 PAULETTE 09/23/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 45 43 40 38 30 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 42 39 37 29 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 38 36 28 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 33 25 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT