* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAULETTE AL172020 09/22/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 50 48 46 43 39 29 19 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 50 48 46 43 39 29 19 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 52 51 48 46 42 38 35 34 34 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 30 32 22 14 28 2 6 8 20 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 0 -4 -1 0 -1 6 6 9 6 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 15 20 20 4 289 216 109 53 189 214 219 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.5 23.7 23.6 23.3 23.1 22.7 22.6 22.9 23.0 23.5 23.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 103 96 95 93 92 88 86 88 89 93 95 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 90 84 83 81 80 76 74 75 76 80 82 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.9 -54.9 -55.4 -55.3 -54.8 -54.1 -54.5 -54.4 -53.8 -53.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.4 0.8 0.0 0.3 0.8 -0.2 1.3 -0.2 0.0 -0.3 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 44 45 48 54 54 51 49 44 38 39 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 14 13 12 14 9 4 4 2 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -8 -10 -14 -27 -30 -26 -25 -17 -46 -64 -53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 20 6 18 20 20 -12 -43 -14 -42 -33 -13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -29 -5 5 -18 -21 -17 -6 -6 4 5 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1314 1227 1149 1062 960 773 709 687 696 765 858 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 34.6 34.9 35.1 35.3 35.4 35.8 35.6 34.8 34.3 33.8 33.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 24.4 23.0 21.7 20.5 19.4 17.4 16.6 16.3 16.7 17.7 19.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 11 10 10 9 6 3 3 4 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 16 CX,CY: 15/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 755 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -15. -17. -18. -20. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -10. -17. -20. -23. -23. -24. -24. -23. -23. -22. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -9. -10. -10. -11. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -2. -4. -7. -11. -21. -31. -35. -41. -43. -46. -47. -47. -46. -44. -42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 34.6 24.4 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172020 PAULETTE 09/22/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 5.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.23 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.73 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.48 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 297.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.63 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.8 27.5 to 139.6 0.06 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.22 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.4% 14.2% 10.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 1.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 5.2% 3.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172020 PAULETTE 09/22/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 50 48 46 43 39 29 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 50 49 47 45 42 38 28 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 50 47 46 44 41 37 27 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 37 33 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT