* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAULETTE AL172020 09/22/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 53 52 49 47 42 35 26 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 53 52 49 47 42 35 26 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 54 55 54 52 47 42 38 36 36 37 37 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 13 29 32 24 17 19 9 8 15 40 35 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 6 1 -4 -5 2 0 10 4 0 -5 -2 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 305 19 28 25 16 226 211 97 96 209 214 211 308 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.8 24.5 23.9 23.9 23.6 23.0 22.9 23.3 23.6 24.0 24.3 25.2 25.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 105 102 98 98 95 90 88 91 95 99 102 109 113 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 92 90 86 86 83 77 76 79 83 89 92 98 102 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.6 -53.8 -54.8 -55.4 -55.1 -54.0 -54.4 -54.2 -53.9 -53.6 -54.0 -54.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 2.0 1.4 0.9 -0.2 0.0 -0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 3 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 44 45 45 47 54 54 49 48 41 42 47 56 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 14 13 13 13 11 6 4 3 3 3 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -9 -13 -29 -42 -25 -15 -9 -41 -34 -34 -38 -51 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 8 19 4 10 25 15 -36 -10 -20 -27 -1 11 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -17 -33 -8 6 -9 -20 -7 -4 8 31 55 51 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1411 1308 1216 1119 1026 875 809 745 790 876 1061 1361 1740 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 26.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 13 12 10 5 4 5 9 14 15 15 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 75/ 14 CX,CY: 14/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 620 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -9. -9. -10. -12. -13. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -5. -9. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -15. -20. -22. -24. -24. -17. -16. -16. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -3. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 2. -1. -3. -8. -15. -24. -30. -33. -35. -38. -31. -33. -32. -31. -30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 33.6 26.2 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172020 PAULETTE 09/22/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 5.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.27 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.56 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.73 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.60 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 332.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.59 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 37.5 27.5 to 139.6 0.09 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.20 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 99.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.8% 16.1% 12.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.2% 2.5% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.7% 6.2% 4.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172020 PAULETTE 09/22/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 53 52 49 47 42 35 26 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 50 49 48 45 43 38 31 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 50 47 46 43 41 36 29 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 38 33 26 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT