* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAULETTE AL172020 09/21/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 36 37 40 41 40 43 44 41 31 22 18 16 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 36 36 37 40 41 40 43 44 41 31 27 27 29 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 36 37 38 40 44 45 44 44 43 32 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type SUBT SUBT EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 12 6 9 12 7 27 14 27 38 62 61 N/A N/A N/A 44 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -1 -1 -4 8 1 0 -1 -1 -4 7 N/A N/A N/A 19 17 SHEAR DIR 43 36 74 177 215 54 5 308 239 250 248 236 N/A N/A N/A 147 133 SST (C) 25.0 25.2 25.6 25.7 25.3 25.0 24.3 24.0 23.6 22.7 22.8 30.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 103 104 109 111 109 108 103 101 99 94 98 179 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 87 87 92 96 97 99 94 93 90 87 92 178 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.8 -53.2 -53.5 -53.7 -54.0 -54.5 -55.1 -54.4 -54.5 -54.2 -52.9 N/A N/A N/A -51.0 -50.8 200 MB VXT (C) 2.2 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.2 0.3 0.4 0.8 0.9 0.2 0.0 N/A N/A N/A 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 2 3 2 4 N/A N/A N/A 0 0 700-500 MB RH 30 32 33 36 39 42 47 60 63 57 54 62 N/A N/A N/A 63 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 15 14 16 16 15 16 15 14 10 6 LOST LOST LOST 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR 27 9 3 -10 -9 -20 -23 50 56 59 56 34 N/A N/A N/A 35 175 200 MB DIV 18 1 -28 -16 -9 -5 14 57 21 15 31 35 N/A N/A N/A 135 171 700-850 TADV -4 -6 -9 -12 -16 -30 -4 8 8 -9 -55 -75 N/A N/A N/A 2 -12 LAND (KM) 1867 1884 1828 1733 1586 1207 803 480 266 135 -131 251 N/A N/A N/A -499 -281 LAT (DEG N) 34.2 33.8 33.3 32.9 32.5 31.7 31.0 31.2 33.1 35.9 38.4 40.9 N/A N/A N/A xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 31.4 31.8 31.4 30.5 29.0 25.0 20.5 16.2 12.2 8.6 2.6 -7.1 N/A N/A N/A xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 7 11 14 20 18 19 20 23 33 43 N/A N/A N/A 17 20 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 N/A N/A N/A 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):230/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 14. 15. 15. 14. 14. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 5. 3. -2. -12. -23. -29. -33. -37. -41. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -12. -18. -19. -17. -16. -14. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 5. 6. 5. 8. 9. 6. -4. -13. -17. -19. -21. -24. -28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 34.2 31.4 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172020 PAULETTE 09/21/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.74 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.49 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.54 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 307.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.62 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 56.8 27.5 to 139.6 0.26 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.11 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 99.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.4% 13.1% 10.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 3.5% 2.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 5.5% 4.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172020 PAULETTE 09/21/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 36 37 40 41 40 43 44 41 31 27 27 29 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 34 35 38 39 38 41 42 39 29 25 25 27 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 35 36 35 38 39 36 26 22 22 24 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 28 29 28 31 32 29 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT