* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAULETTE AL172020 09/20/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 36 38 37 38 35 32 30 23 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 35 36 38 37 38 35 32 30 29 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 36 37 38 39 41 39 37 36 30 30 30 30 30 30 33 37 Storm Type SUBT SUBT EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 5 13 23 26 26 22 25 15 35 56 65 47 43 43 23 16 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -5 -1 3 5 0 3 5 -2 -2 11 24 21 11 4 9 SHEAR DIR 290 311 326 330 309 319 3 290 224 257 247 229 175 178 168 191 219 SST (C) 24.0 24.1 24.1 24.3 24.8 23.3 22.6 22.0 19.7 20.4 22.9 8.1 7.9 7.4 7.0 7.0 7.0 POT. INT. (KT) 94 95 97 100 105 96 92 90 81 86 99 69 69 67 65 65 67 ADJ. POT. INT. 78 80 83 87 92 86 83 81 75 81 93 68 68 66 64 64 66 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.1 -52.6 -52.7 -53.0 -53.3 -54.4 -55.8 -56.1 -54.8 -54.7 -53.9 -50.9 -51.6 -53.7 -55.9 -56.2 200 MB VXT (C) 1.7 2.1 2.1 1.7 1.6 1.3 0.8 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 4 3 2 2 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 33 34 37 40 42 46 53 66 64 62 70 72 80 64 47 48 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 14 16 15 17 16 16 15 14 14 10 5 3 4 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 57 44 25 23 14 6 2 14 15 -21 42 117 244 171 -70 -132 -114 200 MB DIV 4 9 3 -26 -12 11 35 36 39 48 40 -121 -36 -54 -45 -150 -240 700-850 TADV -8 -12 -12 -13 -19 -20 -12 -27 -12 -13 -53 -49 -52 74 45 24 59 LAND (KM) 1722 1701 1646 1559 1442 1189 806 410 41 -275 -67 -308 -415 -493 -218 37 279 LAT (DEG N) 34.9 34.8 34.7 34.8 34.9 35.4 35.9 36.8 38.7 41.1 44.0 48.4 53.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 29.2 29.0 28.4 27.3 25.8 22.0 17.8 13.5 9.6 4.2 -4.1 -12.5 -13.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 7 11 14 17 18 18 20 29 37 29 27 21 15 15 23 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):180/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 596 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. -0. -2. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 0. -5. -13. -25. -34. -42. -51. -55. -54. -54. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. -1. -0. -1. -3. -4. -7. -8. -14. -22. -23. -22. -18. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 2. 3. -0. -3. -5. -12. -19. -31. -47. -57. -59. -55. -50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 34.9 29.2 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172020 PAULETTE 09/20/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.41 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.88 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.35 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 286.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.64 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 49.1 27.5 to 139.6 0.19 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.12 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 92.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.08 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.6% 12.6% 10.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 1.0% 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 4.5% 3.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172020 PAULETTE 09/20/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 35 36 38 37 38 35 32 30 29 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 35 37 36 37 34 31 29 28 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 33 32 33 30 27 25 24 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 24 25 22 19 17 16 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT