* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAULETTE AL172020 09/20/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 36 37 38 38 37 34 30 28 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 35 36 37 38 38 37 34 30 28 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 36 37 38 40 43 42 38 36 36 30 30 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type SUBT SUBT EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 7 17 27 26 31 24 21 28 43 60 63 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -2 -6 -2 0 3 0 -2 0 -5 -4 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 298 282 301 316 316 305 347 339 262 272 257 242 243 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.9 23.9 24.0 24.1 24.4 23.8 23.0 22.3 21.9 21.2 19.5 30.0 29.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 93 94 96 97 101 99 94 89 87 84 81 178 169 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 78 79 81 83 87 88 84 80 77 75 75 173 166 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.1 -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -53.2 -53.6 -55.0 -55.8 -54.2 -54.2 -53.8 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 2.6 1.8 2.3 2.3 1.6 1.5 1.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 1 1 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 32 32 33 36 38 42 47 59 64 57 51 54 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 15 14 15 16 17 16 14 15 12 9 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 64 54 41 29 28 12 14 19 49 27 41 39 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -7 2 7 7 -34 12 -4 30 50 33 11 46 -158 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -10 -16 -13 -12 -17 -23 -12 -14 -20 -38 -98 -29 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1740 1719 1672 1610 1520 1262 957 631 355 146 -165 -23 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 35.3 35.2 35.1 35.0 35.0 35.1 35.5 35.9 37.0 38.3 39.3 40.5 42.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 29.2 29.0 28.5 27.8 26.7 23.3 19.4 15.8 12.9 10.7 7.1 0.0 -10.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 5 7 11 16 15 14 12 12 20 36 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):150/ 2 CX,CY: 1/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 608 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 10. 9. 9. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. -1. -5. -11. -21. -32. -42. -48. -52. -54. -55. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -6. -11. -16. -20. -19. -19. -18. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -5. -7. -18. -27. -35. -40. -44. -46. -46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 35.3 29.2 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172020 PAULETTE 09/20/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.49 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.76 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.34 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 297.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.63 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 46.6 27.5 to 139.6 0.17 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.11 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.2% 11.8% 9.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 1.0% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 4.3% 3.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172020 PAULETTE 09/20/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 35 36 37 38 38 37 34 30 28 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 35 36 37 37 36 33 29 27 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 33 33 32 29 25 23 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 26 25 22 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT