* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAULETTE AL172020 09/20/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 36 37 38 40 41 34 31 29 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 35 36 37 38 40 41 34 31 29 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 34 35 36 38 42 43 39 36 35 30 32 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 8 10 15 25 32 30 36 18 46 56 64 43 N/A 35 54 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -1 -3 -1 0 0 7 -4 0 -2 1 N/A 31 19 14 SHEAR DIR 262 260 292 279 289 297 327 341 306 256 258 250 244 N/A 164 168 157 SST (C) 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.1 24.2 22.7 22.1 22.1 19.7 22.3 29.2 12.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 96 95 95 96 98 100 91 89 90 81 94 163 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 82 80 80 82 84 87 81 80 81 75 88 154 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.3 -52.2 -52.1 -51.9 -52.7 -53.0 -53.9 -55.4 -56.3 -54.8 -54.4 -53.8 N/A -49.0 -51.9 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 2.5 2.5 2.3 1.9 2.3 1.7 2.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 N/A 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 1 2 0 N/A 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 32 34 34 36 36 39 41 44 54 54 59 70 74 N/A 81 72 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 16 16 16 16 17 19 17 17 17 13 11 8 LOST 5 2 2 850 MB ENV VOR 54 58 65 57 54 45 31 24 31 25 -20 -7 35 N/A 223 206 65 200 MB DIV 10 -4 -12 -4 -12 -22 -3 1 21 39 49 43 -142 N/A 48 74 62 700-850 TADV -7 -7 -9 -14 -14 -11 -9 -12 -29 -16 -41 16 -2 N/A -21 114 130 LAND (KM) 1770 1720 1682 1624 1557 1383 1078 779 423 42 -304 22 -58 N/A -458 -494 -108 LAT (DEG N) 35.6 35.4 35.3 35.3 35.4 35.9 36.8 37.1 37.5 38.6 40.6 43.1 46.2 N/A xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 29.4 28.9 28.5 27.8 26.9 24.4 21.2 17.8 13.7 9.5 3.7 -4.7 -13.2 N/A xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 5 7 9 12 14 15 17 19 30 35 32 N/A 22 16 20 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 N/A 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):135/ 8 CX,CY: 6/ -5 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 474 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 7. 5. 5. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. -2. -6. -13. -23. -34. -43. -49. -55. -61. -63. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -3. -4. -4. -10. -14. -18. -20. -22. -24. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. -1. -4. -6. -17. -24. -34. -43. -54. -63. -63. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 35.6 29.4 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172020 PAULETTE 09/20/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.57 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.68 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.51 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 298.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.63 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 46.7 27.5 to 139.6 0.17 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.12 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 99.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.01 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.4% 11.6% 9.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 1.2% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 4.2% 3.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172020 PAULETTE 09/20/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 35 36 37 38 40 41 34 31 29 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 35 36 37 39 40 33 30 28 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 33 35 36 29 26 24 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 28 29 22 19 17 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT