* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAULETTE AL172020 09/19/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 36 38 39 40 39 33 24 23 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 35 36 38 39 40 39 33 24 23 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 34 35 36 38 41 41 38 34 32 31 28 32 29 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 14 10 13 19 35 30 33 33 26 47 45 57 41 43 43 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -1 -1 -7 3 2 0 1 -6 2 0 9 21 28 9 SHEAR DIR 256 251 257 294 288 307 313 344 360 276 256 252 243 223 172 154 174 SST (C) 24.0 24.0 24.1 24.0 24.0 24.1 22.7 22.1 22.1 22.1 21.0 21.8 29.6 13.4 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 97 96 96 96 97 98 90 87 89 89 85 92 171 74 N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 84 82 82 82 83 85 79 77 79 79 77 86 168 72 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.4 -52.2 -52.1 -52.1 -52.3 -52.9 -53.4 -55.0 -56.1 -55.6 -54.2 -53.4 -52.1 -49.0 -50.7 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 3.0 2.5 2.5 2.2 1.8 1.8 1.4 1.4 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 1 1 2 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 31 33 37 38 39 40 39 39 49 52 53 58 69 74 76 69 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 17 18 17 17 18 17 14 15 15 12 11 9 5 3 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 50 60 56 64 62 50 33 16 20 40 18 8 59 171 301 199 153 200 MB DIV -14 18 -3 -7 -14 -9 -6 -34 32 24 19 55 43 -120 -37 62 73 700-850 TADV -8 -8 -8 -10 -16 -9 -10 -13 -13 -13 -31 -34 -81 3 -61 -58 119 LAND (KM) 1817 1740 1681 1628 1573 1448 1222 995 742 425 141 -313 122 -44 -576 -479 -316 LAT (DEG N) 35.9 35.3 35.1 35.2 35.4 36.0 36.9 37.3 37.2 37.2 38.0 39.6 42.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 29.8 29.2 28.6 27.9 27.1 25.2 22.9 20.4 17.4 13.7 10.4 4.9 -4.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 6 5 6 7 10 10 10 14 14 16 31 41 36 25 24 23 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):160/ 11 CX,CY: 4/ -9 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 520 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 6. 4. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. -2. -9. -13. -21. -28. -37. -45. -51. -55. -57. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -8. -8. -8. -14. -16. -18. -22. -24. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. -2. -11. -12. -15. -24. -29. -40. -50. -59. -58. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 35.9 29.8 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172020 PAULETTE 09/19/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.58 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.49 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 282.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.64 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 47.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.18 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.12 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.1% 11.5% 9.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 1.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 4.2% 3.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172020 PAULETTE 09/19/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 35 36 38 39 40 39 33 24 23 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 35 37 38 39 38 32 23 22 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 33 34 35 34 28 19 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 27 26 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT