* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAULETTE AL172020 09/19/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 41 43 44 45 44 42 32 22 20 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 41 41 43 44 45 44 42 32 22 20 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 41 42 43 45 50 53 50 42 36 33 32 32 27 27 27 N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 11 12 8 6 17 33 24 37 29 17 29 39 45 42 39 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 0 -1 -1 -1 -3 2 3 0 0 1 4 4 5 9 N/A SHEAR DIR 298 289 251 235 270 291 304 332 3 12 306 248 249 259 253 238 N/A SST (C) 23.3 23.8 24.1 24.3 24.3 24.2 23.9 22.8 22.6 22.5 22.6 23.2 21.8 22.0 28.2 28.1 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 95 97 98 98 98 98 96 89 89 91 93 96 88 91 145 145 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 84 84 84 83 83 84 83 77 77 81 85 86 80 84 138 141 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.3 -53.0 -52.4 -52.1 -52.1 -52.5 -52.9 -53.4 -54.4 -55.4 -55.6 -54.8 -54.2 -53.5 -53.6 N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.4 2.6 1.9 2.0 1.7 0.8 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 3 4 4 4 4 3 2 2 2 2 3 2 4 1 4 N/A 700-500 MB RH 27 29 33 36 40 40 41 40 38 41 46 46 40 37 36 36 N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 18 18 18 18 18 19 15 11 11 11 9 8 6 5 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 56 59 52 58 53 55 35 23 -10 -29 -41 -21 40 61 36 -20 N/A 200 MB DIV -55 -30 -1 5 -8 -19 -11 -5 -30 -20 -5 -11 1 2 9 -133 N/A 700-850 TADV -15 -13 -6 -3 -6 -12 -7 -10 -8 -3 -18 -21 -19 -39 -100 -104 N/A LAND (KM) 1912 1926 1854 1773 1718 1616 1505 1341 1198 990 645 307 14 -129 -278 -59 N/A LAT (DEG N) 37.8 36.5 35.6 35.1 35.0 35.3 36.1 37.3 37.5 36.9 35.7 34.3 33.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x N/A LONG(DEG W) 31.1 30.9 30.4 29.7 29.1 27.7 25.9 24.4 22.8 20.2 15.9 11.6 7.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 11 9 6 5 7 8 7 8 15 20 18 16 22 28 32 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 12 N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):175/ 17 CX,CY: 1/-16 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 531 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -4. -3. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 4. 2. -3. -8. -10. -14. -19. -25. -31. -34. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -3. -9. -15. -17. -18. -21. -22. -24. -24. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 2. 2. 4. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. -8. -18. -20. -21. -28. -35. -41. -41. -39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 37.8 31.1 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172020 PAULETTE 09/19/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.70 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.70 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.48 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 314.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.61 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 43.6 27.5 to 139.6 0.14 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -17.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.06 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 14.3% 11.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 2.1% 1.4% 0.5% 0.1% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 5.5% 4.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172020 PAULETTE 09/19/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 41 41 43 44 45 44 42 32 22 20 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 40 39 39 41 42 43 42 40 30 20 18 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 38 39 40 39 37 27 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 31 32 31 29 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT