* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAULETTE AL172020 09/18/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 38 38 37 37 37 34 28 22 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 39 38 38 37 37 37 34 28 22 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 38 38 37 38 40 43 44 41 38 34 30 27 25 24 24 23 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 21 16 13 12 12 16 24 21 18 19 18 12 18 23 28 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 3 2 0 0 -3 -6 -1 0 -3 -3 2 1 5 4 3 SHEAR DIR 290 299 301 296 277 310 333 2 22 28 23 56 93 127 158 187 193 SST (C) 21.3 22.3 23.1 23.4 23.9 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 23.9 23.9 24.9 24.7 24.8 25.0 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 86 90 93 94 96 94 93 92 93 92 94 96 105 103 104 105 109 ADJ. POT. INT. 77 80 82 81 81 79 77 77 77 76 79 83 91 91 92 93 96 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.5 -53.2 -53.1 -52.7 -52.1 -52.4 -53.1 -53.6 -54.0 -54.0 -53.6 -53.6 -53.8 -54.2 -54.6 -54.8 200 MB VXT (C) 2.1 2.1 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.3 2.0 2.1 1.1 0.5 0.6 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 700-500 MB RH 27 26 27 29 31 35 35 33 31 32 32 33 34 31 31 33 32 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 21 20 19 18 18 18 17 15 12 9 6 4 3 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 22 43 53 55 38 60 45 10 -15 -63 -109 -135 -114 -104 -70 -36 -22 200 MB DIV -45 -49 -48 -25 -1 -18 -22 -28 -32 -37 -55 -58 -40 0 4 19 -3 700-850 TADV -20 -22 -14 -16 -7 -12 -7 -4 -2 -5 -1 1 -14 -15 -21 -7 -10 LAND (KM) 1839 1885 1884 1872 1840 1754 1721 1721 1734 1742 1732 1610 1375 1187 1147 1244 1393 LAT (DEG N) 41.0 39.3 37.9 36.9 36.2 35.6 35.6 35.6 35.7 35.7 36.0 35.8 34.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 31.2 31.1 30.8 30.4 29.9 29.2 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.0 28.7 27.3 25.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 12 9 7 3 1 1 1 0 3 8 12 12 11 11 9 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):175/ 17 CX,CY: 1/-16 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 649 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. -0. -2. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -9. -14. -19. -24. -28. -31. -32. -32. -31. -30. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -6. -12. -18. -24. -31. -36. -40. -42. -43. -42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 41.0 31.2 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172020 PAULETTE 09/18/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.48 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.73 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.58 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 322.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.60 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 40.3 27.5 to 139.6 0.11 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -33.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172020 PAULETTE 09/18/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 39 38 38 37 37 37 34 28 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 40 39 38 38 37 37 37 34 28 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 36 35 35 35 32 26 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 29 29 29 26 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT