* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAULETTE AL172020 09/18/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 38 37 36 36 35 34 33 29 25 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 38 37 36 36 35 34 33 29 25 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 38 37 37 37 39 42 44 44 42 39 34 30 27 26 25 25 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP EXTP EXTP TROP EXTP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 20 22 18 13 9 11 16 22 16 15 20 16 15 23 26 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 4 3 2 -3 -2 -4 -3 0 -2 -5 0 0 3 3 4 SHEAR DIR 290 291 299 304 304 320 325 346 10 12 39 46 86 119 144 167 190 SST (C) 21.5 21.3 22.1 23.0 23.3 24.0 24.1 24.1 24.1 24.1 24.0 23.9 24.1 24.7 24.8 25.1 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 86 86 89 93 93 96 94 93 93 93 94 95 98 103 104 106 107 ADJ. POT. INT. 76 77 79 81 81 81 78 77 77 77 78 80 85 89 91 92 93 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.3 -52.5 -53.2 -53.1 -52.2 -52.3 -52.5 -53.1 -53.8 -54.0 -53.7 -53.6 -53.6 -54.0 -54.3 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) 2.4 2.1 2.1 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.2 1.6 1.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 0 1 2 2 3 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 28 28 27 27 29 33 34 32 31 31 31 33 35 34 32 33 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 22 21 20 19 18 18 17 16 13 11 8 5 3 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 1 21 40 51 53 49 62 30 -2 -32 -83 -123 -129 -113 -95 -67 -34 200 MB DIV -16 -45 -50 -50 -28 -16 -22 -20 -36 -25 -53 -58 -41 -23 9 6 12 700-850 TADV -7 -20 -22 -15 -14 -7 -8 -4 -1 -6 -1 0 -9 -9 -22 -8 -16 LAND (KM) 1760 1833 1875 1887 1884 1834 1773 1757 1757 1769 1791 1749 1586 1364 1235 1265 1381 LAT (DEG N) 42.8 41.2 39.6 38.2 37.1 35.9 35.3 35.3 35.3 35.4 35.7 36.0 35.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 31.4 31.2 31.1 30.9 30.6 30.0 29.6 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.6 28.9 27.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 16 15 13 9 5 1 0 1 1 2 5 10 11 10 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):165/ 13 CX,CY: 3/-12 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 627 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 4. 6. 6. 5. 2. 1. -1. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -15. -19. -24. -29. -32. -34. -34. -33. -31. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -11. -15. -21. -28. -35. -40. -43. -44. -43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 42.8 31.4 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172020 PAULETTE 09/18/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.46 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.50 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 316.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.61 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.9 27.5 to 139.6 0.10 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -37.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 99.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172020 PAULETTE 09/18/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 38 37 36 36 35 34 33 29 25 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 40 39 38 37 37 36 35 34 30 26 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 35 35 34 33 32 28 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 30 29 28 27 23 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT