* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAULETTE AL172020 09/18/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 43 40 38 36 33 31 31 30 26 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 43 40 38 36 33 31 31 30 26 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 43 42 41 40 41 42 45 47 48 45 40 35 30 27 26 25 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP SUBT EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 14 14 20 23 20 14 6 4 6 15 14 19 20 18 27 31 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 5 6 3 1 -2 -1 -3 -6 0 -4 -4 0 -3 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 276 289 291 304 312 317 8 26 24 45 44 53 75 114 158 191 201 SST (C) 19.6 21.4 21.3 21.2 22.2 23.7 24.4 25.2 25.2 24.4 24.1 23.6 23.0 22.9 23.5 23.3 23.4 POT. INT. (KT) 79 85 85 85 89 95 99 102 103 98 96 93 90 89 93 90 90 ADJ. POT. INT. 71 76 76 76 79 82 83 84 84 83 81 78 76 77 79 76 75 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -52.1 -52.3 -52.5 -53.2 -52.9 -52.7 -52.9 -53.3 -53.6 -54.0 -53.6 -53.4 -53.2 -53.6 -53.7 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) 2.6 2.2 2.2 1.6 2.2 2.0 2.2 2.2 2.2 1.1 0.6 0.8 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 1 1 2 3 4 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 1 700-500 MB RH 32 32 30 29 29 29 30 32 36 35 33 32 34 37 38 40 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 25 23 22 20 18 19 19 17 15 13 10 7 5 3 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR -5 6 23 35 47 34 44 42 4 -36 -67 -112 -172 -163 -156 -144 -142 200 MB DIV -26 -17 -39 -53 -46 -29 -35 -14 -27 -34 -34 -48 -36 -19 20 -4 -5 700-850 TADV -9 -16 -21 -25 -21 -11 -4 0 3 1 5 3 3 0 -2 -4 -5 LAND (KM) 1683 1766 1792 1840 1902 1967 1899 1856 1856 1916 2001 2015 1923 1797 1696 1619 1579 LAT (DEG N) 44.6 43.4 41.9 40.4 38.9 36.6 35.2 34.5 34.5 35.2 36.1 37.1 37.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 31.4 30.9 30.9 31.0 31.2 31.4 31.2 31.1 31.1 31.4 31.9 32.1 31.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 14 15 15 14 9 6 2 2 5 5 5 5 6 5 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):155/ 12 CX,CY: 5/-10 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 627 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -9. -11. -12. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 7. 7. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -4. -5. -8. -11. -13. -16. -21. -25. -30. -34. -35. -37. -35. -35. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -7. -9. -12. -14. -14. -15. -19. -24. -31. -40. -47. -53. -56. -58. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 44.6 31.4 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172020 PAULETTE 09/18/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.43 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.83 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.41 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 327.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.60 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.6 27.5 to 139.6 0.03 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -36.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172020 PAULETTE 09/18/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 43 40 38 36 33 31 31 30 26 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 41 39 37 34 32 32 31 27 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 39 37 34 32 32 31 27 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 33 30 28 28 27 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT