* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAULETTE AL172020 09/16/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 66 56 48 40 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 66 56 48 40 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 67 60 52 45 35 31 31 33 35 36 35 33 30 28 27 28 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP EXTP TROP TROP EXTP TROP SHEAR (KT) 51 55 52 50 35 21 22 25 22 31 25 28 33 24 12 41 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 8 6 6 4 -1 1 1 2 -2 0 -3 -2 -2 -2 -4 -2 SHEAR DIR 210 217 223 227 233 266 285 312 351 19 35 45 55 49 351 260 229 SST (C) 21.5 21.7 21.9 19.9 20.7 19.6 21.8 22.5 24.2 25.3 25.4 25.8 26.4 26.4 26.2 26.3 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 90 90 90 82 82 77 87 90 99 106 106 109 114 113 111 113 118 ADJ. POT. INT. 82 82 80 74 73 69 76 79 85 89 88 90 94 92 90 94 99 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -50.9 -50.4 -50.4 -50.2 -51.0 -52.5 -52.7 -53.6 -53.7 -53.6 -53.5 -53.5 -53.4 -54.2 -54.9 -55.3 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 1.4 1.0 1.8 2.1 3.1 2.1 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.0 1.1 1.2 0.5 0.3 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 3 4 4 5 4 5 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 29 26 26 28 33 33 30 26 25 25 28 28 31 32 41 36 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 39 39 38 37 34 30 26 22 21 20 19 20 20 20 19 21 22 850 MB ENV VOR 25 10 -15 -1 -5 7 -6 42 54 51 56 56 47 66 108 43 33 200 MB DIV 28 40 27 29 -5 -12 -24 -62 -68 -53 -21 -3 -6 -9 17 -6 0 700-850 TADV -53 -49 -55 -36 -19 -15 -16 -18 -10 -3 -1 0 -2 -3 10 -8 -8 LAND (KM) 669 793 965 1129 1299 1495 1613 1774 1878 2011 2042 1999 2021 1999 1956 1939 1961 LAT (DEG N) 42.6 43.7 44.7 45.2 45.7 44.8 42.3 39.6 37.3 35.7 34.7 33.9 33.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 46.9 43.9 41.0 38.5 36.0 33.8 33.7 33.5 34.2 34.0 33.2 33.1 33.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 26 24 21 18 13 10 13 13 10 7 5 4 3 1 1 3 6 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 1 1 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 27 CX,CY: 23/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 579 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -3. -5. -8. -11. -15. -21. -27. -32. -36. -38. -41. -43. -45. -46. -46. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -8. -12. -14. -16. -18. -19. -21. -21. -22. -23. -24. -25. -24. -25. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 8. 8. 8. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -16. -23. -27. -30. -33. -33. -33. -32. -32. -28. -27. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -10. -12. -13. -13. -14. -14. -15. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -9. -19. -27. -35. -48. -62. -75. -82. -88. -92. -93. -97. -99.-100. -97. -96. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 42.6 46.9 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172020 PAULETTE 09/16/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 48.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.86 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.81 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.66 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 514.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.40 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 3.2 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.25 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 88.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.12 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172020 PAULETTE 09/16/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172020 PAULETTE 09/16/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 0( 5) 0( 5) 0( 5) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 66 56 48 40 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 75 74 64 56 48 35 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 75 72 71 63 55 42 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 57 44 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT