* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAULETTE AL172020 09/16/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 78 67 56 47 32 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 85 78 67 56 47 32 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 78 67 59 51 39 33 32 33 35 36 35 33 30 28 26 24 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 49 50 54 51 46 24 21 25 26 23 30 27 37 30 22 28 55 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 6 8 8 7 1 0 3 1 0 -1 2 -5 -3 1 -11 -7 SHEAR DIR 214 215 215 226 228 245 276 293 327 352 21 31 59 72 44 335 334 SST (C) 26.5 20.6 22.1 21.8 19.1 19.5 21.1 22.0 22.9 24.3 25.3 25.8 26.4 26.5 26.5 26.7 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 124 87 92 90 79 77 83 87 91 99 106 110 115 115 115 117 118 ADJ. POT. INT. 111 80 84 81 72 69 73 76 78 84 89 91 95 94 95 96 96 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.4 -51.0 -50.5 -50.6 -50.8 -52.1 -52.8 -53.3 -53.7 -53.9 -53.9 -54.3 -54.0 -53.6 -53.6 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 1.7 1.2 1.5 0.9 1.8 2.9 2.4 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.3 1.2 0.9 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 4 4 5 5 5 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 34 30 27 26 29 32 33 28 26 25 25 26 31 30 36 41 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 38 38 37 35 35 32 28 24 21 20 20 19 19 19 20 21 23 850 MB ENV VOR 36 20 16 -20 0 -11 -12 3 34 25 13 22 23 10 37 44 -14 200 MB DIV 50 31 45 30 32 4 -31 -29 -54 -70 -28 -28 10 11 0 -11 -30 700-850 TADV -28 -39 -61 -37 -29 -26 -18 -21 -15 -7 -2 0 -1 0 -2 0 -8 LAND (KM) 638 655 785 966 1156 1392 1537 1679 1776 1885 1981 2069 2098 2106 2153 2126 2115 LAT (DEG N) 41.2 42.4 43.6 44.5 45.3 45.4 43.6 41.0 39.1 37.4 36.0 34.8 33.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 50.8 47.4 44.1 41.1 38.1 34.9 33.9 33.7 33.9 34.0 34.1 34.2 34.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 27 27 25 23 17 9 11 11 9 8 6 6 4 3 3 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 2 3 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 25 CX,CY: 22/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 603 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -7. -11. -17. -24. -33. -40. -47. -50. -53. -55. -57. -58. -59. -58. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -5. -11. -16. -21. -24. -25. -24. -25. -23. -23. -23. -24. -24. -23. -23. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 8. 8. 8. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -13. -20. -26. -29. -31. -33. -32. -31. -30. -27. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -12. -12. -13. -14. -14. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 2. -0. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -7. -18. -29. -38. -53. -65. -76. -85. -90. -94. -97.-100.-103.-104.-102.-103. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 41.2 50.8 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172020 PAULETTE 09/16/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 50.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.02 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.32 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.68 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.86 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 586.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 0.7 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.31 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 88.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.11 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172020 PAULETTE 09/16/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172020 PAULETTE 09/16/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 3( 13) 0( 13) 0( 13) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 85 78 67 56 47 32 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 85 84 73 62 53 38 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 85 82 81 70 61 46 34 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 85 79 76 75 66 51 39 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 NOW 85 76 70 67 66 51 39 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT