* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAULETTE AL172020 09/16/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 80 71 61 51 35 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 85 80 71 61 51 35 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 81 72 62 54 41 34 31 32 33 34 33 33 32 31 30 29 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 44 49 55 54 49 37 22 23 25 23 34 31 22 20 16 21 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 5 6 7 2 -1 1 3 2 -1 0 -6 -2 0 -1 7 SHEAR DIR 212 215 212 215 220 234 267 283 308 332 359 19 36 65 62 54 123 SST (C) 27.3 25.9 20.7 21.2 21.0 20.2 19.2 21.7 22.8 23.4 24.2 24.9 26.4 26.8 26.8 26.9 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 133 119 87 89 87 80 76 86 91 93 98 104 117 119 118 122 116 ADJ. POT. INT. 120 108 81 82 78 71 69 76 78 79 83 90 99 97 96 103 101 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.3 -51.3 -51.0 -50.4 -50.7 -51.3 -52.5 -52.7 -53.3 -53.6 -53.9 -54.2 -54.4 -54.0 -53.6 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 1.8 1.8 1.2 1.3 1.3 2.1 2.9 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.4 0.7 0.9 0.4 0.4 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 37 34 31 28 28 31 33 32 28 26 27 27 35 43 43 46 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 37 38 39 36 34 34 31 26 24 20 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 850 MB ENV VOR 21 32 21 6 -12 -11 -13 -6 41 35 28 28 21 -13 -39 -54 -82 200 MB DIV 108 45 28 37 23 6 -11 -23 -69 -70 -54 -32 -5 -4 -14 -9 -40 700-850 TADV -41 -47 -65 -70 -39 -21 -17 -12 -17 -19 -7 0 0 4 -1 8 -10 LAND (KM) 745 632 652 806 1019 1331 1495 1639 1750 1865 1968 2050 1961 1913 1913 1909 1899 LAT (DEG N) 40.0 41.3 42.6 43.8 45.0 45.9 45.0 42.4 40.0 38.4 37.3 35.6 33.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 54.0 50.6 47.2 43.6 40.1 35.5 33.7 33.3 33.5 33.3 32.9 32.8 33.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 27 29 29 28 22 11 10 12 10 7 7 10 9 3 2 7 9 HEAT CONTENT 21 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 3 3 4 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 24 CX,CY: 20/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 596 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -8. -14. -22. -31. -39. -45. -50. -53. -55. -57. -57. -58. -57. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -11. -16. -21. -27. -27. -27. -27. -25. -25. -26. -24. -23. -22. -21. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. -1. -2. -3. -8. -16. -20. -27. -29. -31. -29. -28. -28. -26. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -11. -12. -12. -13. -13. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -14. -24. -34. -50. -60. -72. -80. -88. -93. -97. -95. -96. -98. -98. -98. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 40.0 54.0 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172020 PAULETTE 09/16/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 50.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.03 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.48 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.68 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.81 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 597.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.31 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 9.0 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.36 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 48.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.51 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172020 PAULETTE 09/16/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172020 PAULETTE 09/16/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 4( 14) 0( 14) 0( 14) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 85 80 71 61 51 35 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 85 84 75 65 55 39 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 85 82 81 71 61 45 35 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 85 79 76 75 65 49 39 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 85 76 70 67 66 50 40 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT