* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAULETTE AL172020 09/15/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 82 76 69 59 40 28 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 85 82 76 69 59 40 28 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 82 78 69 59 45 36 31 31 33 34 33 31 28 27 26 27 Storm Type TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 34 45 45 52 55 45 22 19 23 28 37 41 43 34 10 6 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 1 6 5 6 6 -1 0 0 -1 -3 -2 -1 -2 -5 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 206 214 215 211 214 224 245 283 294 319 339 2 6 16 1 320 15 SST (C) 27.2 27.2 24.6 22.2 20.8 18.5 18.3 19.4 21.4 22.5 23.1 23.7 24.0 25.3 26.0 26.1 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 131 132 108 94 87 77 73 76 84 89 91 94 97 108 113 112 120 ADJ. POT. INT. 118 119 98 86 80 71 66 68 74 77 79 80 83 93 97 95 101 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.4 -51.6 -51.2 -50.9 -50.7 -51.2 -52.2 -52.7 -52.9 -53.5 -53.8 -54.1 -54.5 -53.9 -53.7 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 1.5 1.9 1.6 1.1 1.4 2.2 2.9 2.2 1.6 1.5 1.1 1.1 0.9 1.2 0.6 0.5 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 39 38 35 33 29 31 33 37 33 32 31 31 32 40 51 52 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 37 38 39 40 36 35 32 28 24 21 19 17 18 17 18 20 20 850 MB ENV VOR 21 17 35 21 6 -4 -26 -24 -8 23 27 17 13 11 -5 -36 -49 200 MB DIV 127 96 54 30 54 23 -6 -29 -26 -57 -77 -56 -44 -8 -7 -7 -12 700-850 TADV -25 -35 -39 -72 -69 -34 -17 -8 -18 -17 -15 -8 2 2 4 7 3 LAND (KM) 810 733 630 674 834 1184 1401 1518 1637 1786 1927 1954 1964 1840 1693 1688 1827 LAT (DEG N) 38.8 40.1 41.4 42.7 43.9 45.8 46.1 44.8 42.9 40.8 39.0 37.5 36.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 56.5 53.4 50.3 46.7 43.2 37.5 34.5 33.5 33.0 32.4 31.9 31.5 31.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 25 27 28 29 26 16 7 8 10 10 8 7 8 11 8 5 7 HEAT CONTENT 15 24 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 22 CX,CY: 18/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 613 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -3. -6. -12. -20. -29. -38. -45. -49. -53. -57. -59. -59. -60. -59. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -9. -14. -19. -27. -28. -27. -26. -25. -25. -27. -29. -29. -28. -26. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. -1. -3. -7. -14. -20. -25. -30. -33. -32. -32. -30. -26. -26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -12. -13. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -9. -16. -26. -45. -57. -68. -79. -86. -95.-102.-104.-106.-103. -99.-101. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 38.8 56.5 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172020 PAULETTE 09/15/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 46.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.05 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.87 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.68 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.61 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 595.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.32 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 15.3 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.47 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 34.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.65 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172020 PAULETTE 09/15/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172020 PAULETTE 09/15/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 5( 15) 0( 15) 0( 15) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 85 82 76 69 59 40 28 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 85 84 78 71 61 42 30 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 85 82 81 74 64 45 33 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 85 79 76 75 65 46 34 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 85 76 70 67 66 47 35 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT