* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAULETTE AL172020 09/15/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 87 83 77 67 44 32 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 90 87 83 77 67 44 32 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 90 88 85 81 71 51 39 32 30 32 34 34 32 30 27 24 22 Storm Type TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 39 49 47 55 52 34 21 19 25 31 46 46 48 35 24 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 13 8 0 6 5 9 1 -5 0 4 2 -3 1 -5 -1 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 197 203 214 219 213 228 236 262 275 312 338 356 12 19 37 27 54 SST (C) 27.1 27.2 27.0 26.8 19.5 22.1 18.8 18.4 21.4 22.0 22.4 23.0 24.0 25.1 25.4 26.4 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 129 131 129 128 83 91 77 73 83 86 87 91 97 106 108 117 123 ADJ. POT. INT. 114 115 116 117 77 81 70 66 73 74 75 78 83 90 92 99 106 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.2 -51.2 -51.3 -51.2 -50.7 -51.2 -52.1 -53.0 -52.6 -53.2 -53.6 -53.9 -53.8 -54.1 -53.9 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 1.6 1.9 1.5 1.2 1.3 2.0 2.7 2.1 1.6 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.7 1.1 0.4 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 3 4 5 6 7 700-500 MB RH 39 39 37 35 32 26 29 31 32 30 30 29 27 29 38 46 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 36 36 38 39 38 34 34 29 25 22 19 18 18 18 20 20 20 850 MB ENV VOR 46 20 26 34 12 -19 -21 -26 -26 17 22 7 16 21 20 -16 -37 200 MB DIV 123 128 100 48 25 35 -14 -11 -23 -70 -70 -62 -42 -1 -14 -36 8 700-850 TADV 1 -21 -37 -37 -65 -42 -21 -8 -5 -15 -20 -11 -4 -2 1 2 11 LAND (KM) 830 788 748 622 635 916 1214 1420 1450 1573 1746 1860 1891 2034 1931 1853 1900 LAT (DEG N) 37.7 38.9 40.0 41.3 42.6 44.6 45.8 45.7 43.9 42.2 41.0 39.5 37.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 59.3 57.0 54.6 51.1 47.5 41.7 37.1 34.4 34.9 34.3 32.8 32.4 33.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 20 22 26 30 27 20 13 7 8 9 7 8 9 9 9 8 10 HEAT CONTENT 16 15 20 21 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 19 CX,CY: 13/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 607 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -5. -11. -19. -30. -39. -47. -53. -58. -61. -64. -65. -65. -64. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -9. -14. -20. -30. -33. -31. -29. -26. -26. -27. -29. -30. -31. -31. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 1. 1. -3. -4. -11. -18. -24. -29. -31. -32. -30. -27. -26. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -13. -23. -46. -58. -69. -79. -87. -95.-102.-106.-108.-107.-108.-110. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 37.7 59.3 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172020 PAULETTE 09/15/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 42.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.09 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.85 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.62 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.58 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 652.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.26 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 17.8 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 84.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.53 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 28.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.71 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172020 PAULETTE 09/15/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172020 PAULETTE 09/15/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 9( 20) 3( 22) 0( 22) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 87 83 77 67 44 32 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 90 89 85 79 69 46 34 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 90 87 86 80 70 47 35 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 70 47 35 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 90 81 75 72 71 48 36 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 90 87 78 72 69 57 45 34 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 90 87 83 74 68 64 52 41 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20