* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAULETTE AL172020 09/15/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 91 91 89 84 68 51 40 29 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 90 91 91 89 84 68 51 40 29 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 90 92 93 92 88 73 52 39 31 30 33 36 38 37 35 31 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 18 27 39 46 55 52 34 21 14 22 28 31 37 40 40 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 5 6 7 3 3 8 0 -3 0 2 1 0 0 1 2 2 SHEAR DIR 213 214 208 204 215 212 227 232 256 268 307 327 350 18 21 26 11 SST (C) 27.5 27.4 27.7 27.3 27.1 21.0 22.8 18.6 17.6 18.8 21.8 22.4 23.7 24.7 25.6 26.2 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 133 132 137 132 131 88 95 76 72 75 87 90 96 103 108 112 112 ADJ. POT. INT. 116 116 122 119 117 81 84 70 66 68 76 79 83 88 91 92 91 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.2 -51.3 -50.9 -50.9 -50.8 -50.5 -51.0 -52.0 -52.7 -52.1 -52.6 -53.0 -53.4 -53.3 -53.7 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.8 1.9 1.3 1.3 1.9 2.9 2.1 1.7 1.2 1.2 1.2 0.7 0.3 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 6 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 40 41 40 39 38 33 26 30 35 40 35 31 29 31 32 37 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 33 35 37 39 40 39 36 35 29 25 22 20 18 17 16 15 13 850 MB ENV VOR 33 36 42 26 34 29 -16 -21 -46 -36 27 43 39 34 44 58 56 200 MB DIV 48 88 119 126 103 30 29 2 -7 -16 -47 -53 -50 -23 0 -5 -40 700-850 TADV 3 5 0 -26 -26 -75 -39 -25 -7 -2 -14 -20 -9 -1 0 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 934 877 842 820 779 648 916 1192 1391 1543 1694 1875 1881 1913 1885 1871 1849 LAT (DEG N) 35.1 36.3 37.4 38.6 39.7 42.2 44.6 46.3 46.8 45.6 43.1 40.4 38.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 63.3 61.5 59.6 56.9 54.2 47.9 41.7 37.2 34.4 32.8 32.1 31.5 30.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 19 22 24 26 26 22 14 8 10 13 13 11 10 6 3 1 HEAT CONTENT 17 12 22 14 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 15 CX,CY: 9/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 620 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. -2. -6. -14. -24. -33. -42. -48. -53. -57. -60. -62. -63. -62. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -7. -12. -21. -28. -30. -28. -24. -22. -22. -21. -22. -23. -25. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 1. -1. -9. -15. -22. -24. -27. -28. -29. -28. -29. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. -1. -6. -22. -39. -50. -61. -70. -79. -84. -89. -92. -96. -99.-106. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 35.1 63.3 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172020 PAULETTE 09/15/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.07 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.11 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.84 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.62 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.53 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 729.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.17 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 28.0 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 96.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.59 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 36.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.64 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.2% 12.4% 9.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.5% 0.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.5% 4.4% 3.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 6.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172020 PAULETTE 09/15/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172020 PAULETTE 09/15/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 12( 23) 9( 30) 3( 32) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 91 91 89 84 68 51 40 29 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 90 89 89 87 82 66 49 38 27 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 90 87 86 84 79 63 46 35 24 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 75 59 42 31 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 90 81 75 72 71 55 38 27 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 90 91 82 76 73 62 45 34 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 90 91 91 82 76 72 55 44 33 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS