* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAULETTE AL172020 09/14/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 93 94 93 90 80 63 52 40 30 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 90 93 94 93 90 80 63 52 40 30 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 90 93 95 95 94 83 60 45 35 31 32 36 38 38 37 33 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 12 21 28 38 45 58 47 24 16 18 24 26 31 34 43 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 3 7 7 3 5 3 -3 -1 0 0 4 1 0 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 208 213 212 203 205 211 213 220 231 266 285 317 343 4 9 24 27 SST (C) 27.9 27.5 27.4 27.6 27.3 26.5 20.7 19.1 17.9 17.2 20.4 21.9 23.6 24.5 24.8 25.6 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 136 132 132 136 133 125 86 79 73 72 81 88 96 100 102 108 115 ADJ. POT. INT. 116 115 116 122 120 113 79 72 66 66 73 77 83 85 85 90 96 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.1 -51.3 -51.3 -50.9 -51.0 -50.4 -50.9 -51.6 -52.1 -52.1 -52.4 -53.3 -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 1.4 1.4 1.8 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.8 2.7 2.0 1.8 2.0 1.3 1.3 1.1 0.8 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 6 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 3 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 36 39 40 40 39 34 27 28 31 38 33 28 29 38 38 38 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 32 34 36 38 38 40 37 37 33 28 24 21 18 16 15 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR 20 31 35 37 23 34 7 -8 -33 -47 -22 25 36 28 40 47 52 200 MB DIV 64 48 79 129 132 52 37 37 -2 -15 -15 -41 -63 -19 -9 -4 -17 700-850 TADV 3 2 5 -4 -22 -41 -56 -29 -10 -4 -12 -11 -7 -3 2 2 9 LAND (KM) 993 946 867 845 801 615 762 1092 1307 1458 1605 1770 1946 2008 1988 1961 1931 LAT (DEG N) 33.9 35.1 36.2 37.5 38.7 41.4 44.2 46.4 47.3 46.5 44.1 41.4 38.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 64.4 63.1 61.9 59.5 57.0 50.9 44.0 38.5 35.4 33.6 32.7 32.2 31.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 15 19 23 25 28 25 17 8 9 13 14 12 8 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 23 18 13 22 15 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 10 CX,CY: -1/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 798 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -13. -22. -32. -41. -47. -52. -56. -59. -61. -62. -62. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -2. -4. -8. -16. -23. -27. -27. -23. -20. -19. -19. -19. -20. -22. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. -10. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 3. 5. 3. 3. -3. -10. -16. -21. -25. -27. -28. -30. -30. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 3. -0. -10. -27. -38. -50. -60. -69. -78. -84. -87. -90. -97.-103. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 33.9 64.4 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172020 PAULETTE 09/14/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 5.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.33 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.12 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.62 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.55 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 787.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.11 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 27.8 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 90.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.56 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 38.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.62 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.0% 14.9% 11.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.7% 1.4% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.0% 5.5% 4.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172020 PAULETTE 09/14/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172020 PAULETTE 09/14/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 16( 26) 12( 35) 7( 40) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 93 94 93 90 80 63 52 40 30 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 90 89 90 89 86 76 59 48 36 26 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 90 87 86 85 82 72 55 44 32 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 77 67 50 39 27 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 90 81 75 72 71 61 44 33 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 90 93 84 78 75 69 52 41 29 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 90 93 94 85 79 75 58 47 35 25 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS