* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAULETTE AL172020 09/14/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 89 92 93 93 88 77 64 52 43 32 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 85 89 92 93 93 88 77 64 52 43 32 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 90 93 95 96 92 74 53 40 33 32 35 37 35 31 26 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 7 14 21 29 45 56 53 34 18 16 28 36 44 54 46 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 0 4 6 5 2 6 -2 -4 -1 1 1 1 -3 2 2 SHEAR DIR 232 219 206 209 208 215 213 223 226 252 283 319 346 1 16 25 35 SST (C) 28.0 27.9 27.5 27.4 27.7 27.4 18.6 21.6 19.3 19.1 20.7 23.0 22.9 23.8 25.0 26.1 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 137 136 132 132 136 134 80 88 77 74 80 93 92 96 104 114 119 ADJ. POT. INT. 116 116 114 116 121 120 75 79 69 66 71 80 80 82 88 97 102 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.2 -51.0 -51.1 -51.0 -50.8 -50.6 -49.9 -50.6 -51.9 -52.1 -52.1 -52.5 -53.0 -53.6 -53.7 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 1.8 1.6 1.7 2.1 1.8 1.9 1.5 1.5 2.2 2.8 2.1 2.1 0.7 0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 6 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 34 37 40 40 38 38 32 27 30 34 34 31 30 31 42 45 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 32 33 35 36 39 40 40 39 36 31 26 24 20 17 13 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 11 18 40 34 35 42 44 -3 -1 -26 -48 -14 26 13 13 25 24 200 MB DIV 43 65 57 69 112 97 53 42 4 0 1 -83 -63 -37 -19 -24 -19 700-850 TADV 3 3 -1 3 -1 -18 -67 -39 -17 0 0 -12 -9 0 2 2 -1 LAND (KM) 1040 991 917 868 818 786 591 860 1099 1223 1308 1466 1742 1879 1921 2045 1969 LAT (DEG N) 32.9 34.0 35.0 36.2 37.3 39.7 42.3 44.5 45.9 46.0 44.8 42.9 40.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 64.9 64.3 63.8 62.0 60.3 55.1 48.9 42.5 38.6 36.9 36.3 35.3 33.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 14 18 21 25 26 20 11 5 8 12 12 9 8 9 11 HEAT CONTENT 27 22 15 13 21 25 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 11 CX,CY: -5/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 672 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -9. -17. -25. -32. -38. -43. -47. -51. -53. -54. -53. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -1. -3. -10. -16. -22. -25. -23. -21. -20. -22. -24. -27. -30. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 7. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 5. 2. -6. -13. -17. -23. -26. -30. -33. -33. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 8. 8. 3. -8. -21. -33. -42. -53. -61. -72. -81. -90. -98.-104. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 32.9 64.9 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172020 PAULETTE 09/14/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 5.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.54 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.13 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.68 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.46 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 789.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.11 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 31.3 27.5 to 139.6 0.03 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.46 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 38.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.61 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.8% 15.2% 11.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.1% 4.3% 3.2% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 7.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.1% 6.5% 5.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 11.0% 11.0% 9.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172020 PAULETTE 09/14/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172020 PAULETTE 09/14/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 13( 22) 14( 33) 11( 40) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 85 89 92 93 93 88 77 64 52 43 32 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 85 84 87 88 88 83 72 59 47 38 27 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 85 82 81 82 82 77 66 53 41 32 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 85 79 76 75 75 70 59 46 34 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 85 76 70 67 66 61 50 37 25 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 85 89 80 74 71 68 57 44 32 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 85 89 92 83 77 73 62 49 37 28 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS