* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAULETTE AL172020 09/14/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 84 88 92 94 95 90 76 63 54 43 34 25 16 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 84 88 92 94 95 90 76 63 54 43 34 25 16 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 84 89 94 98 98 88 65 49 39 33 34 38 40 39 35 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 1 6 7 13 20 33 47 60 51 21 13 15 23 38 45 42 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 0 1 4 9 4 6 3 -4 -1 0 3 0 7 2 3 SHEAR DIR 43 236 227 214 209 205 221 219 226 230 266 286 324 353 7 18 22 SST (C) 28.2 28.4 28.7 28.1 27.9 27.5 27.4 23.2 23.2 19.6 19.6 21.1 22.5 23.3 24.5 25.6 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 139 142 148 140 138 134 134 97 95 77 76 83 90 94 101 109 108 ADJ. POT. INT. 119 121 125 121 121 119 118 87 83 69 68 73 79 82 87 91 91 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.5 -51.2 -51.0 -51.2 -50.6 -51.0 -50.5 -50.7 -51.3 -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -53.0 -53.2 -53.4 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.8 1.9 1.6 1.4 1.8 2.3 1.7 1.8 1.3 0.4 0.8 1.0 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 9 6 3 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 34 35 37 42 41 41 36 30 29 31 34 33 33 29 31 33 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 31 31 32 34 35 40 41 39 38 34 28 24 21 18 15 15 15 850 MB ENV VOR 4 7 19 34 31 38 53 24 16 -18 -34 -62 -28 16 2 24 27 200 MB DIV 3 39 63 64 73 121 64 41 21 -4 1 -17 -62 -84 -45 -26 1 700-850 TADV 0 3 3 0 0 -22 -32 -45 -32 -10 -5 -5 -19 -11 -6 -3 0 LAND (KM) 1131 1084 999 952 883 830 702 673 912 1109 1241 1413 1656 1826 1940 2059 1982 LAT (DEG N) 31.8 32.8 33.8 34.9 36.0 38.2 40.4 42.7 44.7 45.8 45.9 44.6 42.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 64.4 64.5 64.5 63.3 62.1 57.7 52.5 46.7 41.7 38.5 36.7 35.0 33.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 12 15 18 22 24 22 17 9 7 11 13 12 11 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 19 27 29 20 18 17 32 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 544 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -4. -10. -16. -23. -28. -33. -37. -41. -43. -45. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -8. -15. -21. -21. -19. -17. -18. -19. -22. -25. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -8. -10. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 6. 6. 7. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 8. 7. 5. -1. -10. -17. -21. -24. -27. -26. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 14. 15. 10. -4. -17. -26. -37. -46. -55. -64. -73. -78. -83. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 31.8 64.4 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172020 PAULETTE 09/14/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.74 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.15 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.70 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.75 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.44 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 766.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.14 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 41.3 27.5 to 139.6 0.12 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.36 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 56.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.43 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.8% 16.7% 12.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.1% 3.3% 2.4% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 6.8% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.2% 6.7% 5.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 10.0% 11.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172020 PAULETTE 09/14/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172020 PAULETTE 09/14/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 11( 17) 16( 30) 17( 42) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 84 88 92 94 95 90 76 63 54 43 34 25 16 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 80 79 83 87 89 90 85 71 58 49 38 29 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 80 77 76 80 82 83 78 64 51 42 31 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 72 73 68 54 41 32 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR 80 84 75 69 66 65 60 46 33 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 80 84 88 79 73 69 64 50 37 28 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS