* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAULETTE AL172020 09/14/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 80 85 90 94 99 96 90 74 63 51 41 31 23 16 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 80 85 90 94 99 96 90 74 63 51 41 31 23 16 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 79 84 90 96 101 95 79 58 45 37 35 37 40 41 40 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 5 1 4 5 13 25 43 54 53 39 16 10 15 23 38 46 45 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -2 -3 0 0 8 5 2 7 -2 -3 0 3 4 0 0 6 SHEAR DIR 6 78 191 202 210 209 217 213 228 230 249 277 305 319 338 6 27 SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.5 28.7 28.1 27.8 27.9 24.2 24.6 22.4 19.5 20.2 22.0 22.7 23.3 24.2 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 141 140 144 148 140 138 140 103 105 90 78 79 87 90 93 100 105 ADJ. POT. INT. 122 120 123 126 120 122 123 92 91 79 70 70 75 77 80 86 92 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.4 -51.3 -50.8 -50.7 -50.8 -50.4 -50.5 -49.9 -50.5 -51.2 -51.9 -51.8 -52.6 -53.0 -53.5 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 1.7 2.2 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.8 2.2 1.5 1.6 2.3 2.8 1.5 1.9 1.5 0.8 0.9 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 10 8 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 3 4 700-500 MB RH 34 35 36 39 42 41 40 35 31 32 34 35 34 31 31 33 32 MODEL VTX (KT) 30 32 31 33 35 40 40 43 40 38 32 27 23 20 19 17 15 850 MB ENV VOR 26 5 13 17 39 57 52 42 14 26 8 -9 2 21 19 16 17 200 MB DIV -21 4 37 60 48 113 111 60 27 1 -1 -7 -36 -51 -44 -50 -47 700-850 TADV -3 -1 4 5 0 -5 -30 -39 -30 -22 -1 -2 -13 -22 -9 0 -2 LAND (KM) 1245 1144 1048 998 911 851 844 652 760 999 1224 1413 1585 1717 1820 1983 1927 LAT (DEG N) 30.9 31.8 32.7 33.9 35.0 37.0 39.1 41.3 43.2 44.8 45.7 45.2 43.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 63.6 64.3 64.9 64.4 63.9 60.2 55.1 49.9 44.8 40.5 37.0 34.7 33.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 12 14 20 22 22 19 15 11 9 10 9 9 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 20 19 29 29 21 19 26 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 575 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 24.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -6. -11. -16. -20. -25. -29. -33. -36. -38. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -2. -8. -15. -19. -18. -17. -16. -16. -18. -22. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -11. -13. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 9. 13. 9. 6. -2. -10. -16. -19. -21. -22. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 15. 19. 24. 21. 15. -1. -12. -24. -34. -44. -52. -59. -68. -75. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 30.9 63.6 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172020 PAULETTE 09/14/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.88 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.16 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.73 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.81 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.46 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 734.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.17 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 47.2 27.5 to 139.6 0.18 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.26 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 42.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.58 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.5% 18.8% 14.3% 13.6% 11.0% 12.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.1% 9.8% 8.5% 3.1% 0.6% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 5.0% 0.6% 0.5% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.5% 9.8% 7.8% 5.8% 3.9% 4.3% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172020 PAULETTE 09/14/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172020 PAULETTE 09/14/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 10( 15) 16( 28) 21( 43) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 80 85 90 94 99 96 90 74 63 51 41 31 23 16 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 75 74 79 84 88 93 90 84 68 57 45 35 25 17 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 75 72 71 76 80 85 82 76 60 49 37 27 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 69 74 71 65 49 38 26 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR 75 80 85 76 70 66 63 57 41 30 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS