* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAULETTE AL172020 09/13/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 80 85 90 95 100 102 96 87 74 66 52 41 33 26 17 N/A V (KT) LAND 75 80 85 90 95 100 102 96 87 74 66 52 41 33 26 17 N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 80 85 91 96 104 100 91 70 55 45 38 36 37 38 37 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 2 5 2 5 7 17 30 40 49 43 31 18 15 17 33 44 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -2 -3 -1 2 10 3 4 7 -4 -1 3 3 1 1 0 SHEAR DIR 244 327 356 206 202 204 201 212 212 235 249 258 268 296 309 331 344 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.4 28.7 27.9 27.5 27.3 24.7 22.3 23.4 21.2 22.4 22.5 22.8 23.0 23.3 POT. INT. (KT) 141 141 140 143 148 138 134 133 106 88 93 84 88 87 89 91 94 ADJ. POT. INT. 123 122 120 121 126 120 119 118 92 76 78 74 75 73 75 78 82 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.5 -51.4 -51.2 -50.9 -51.0 -50.7 -51.1 -50.9 -50.9 -52.0 -52.5 -52.6 -54.1 -55.3 -55.9 -55.7 200 MB VXT (C) 1.5 1.8 2.3 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.8 1.8 1.3 0.9 0.5 0.6 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 6 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 36 35 36 37 40 42 40 36 34 32 32 34 34 36 37 41 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 29 30 30 32 35 40 40 41 38 38 32 27 24 21 18 16 850 MB ENV VOR 43 26 10 8 17 31 38 53 22 15 -5 -43 -46 -59 -19 -28 -12 200 MB DIV -12 -24 10 45 52 72 119 84 62 31 16 0 -6 -17 -38 -77 -35 700-850 TADV 2 -1 0 4 4 -3 -20 -39 -31 -5 -7 -1 -6 -13 -16 -8 -3 LAND (KM) 1345 1252 1140 1082 985 881 849 716 714 856 987 1175 1454 1551 1525 1627 1891 LAT (DEG N) 30.2 31.0 31.8 32.9 33.9 36.1 38.0 40.3 42.4 43.6 44.1 44.1 43.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 62.6 63.5 64.3 64.5 64.6 61.8 57.8 52.1 46.4 43.1 41.0 38.5 34.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 11 12 17 22 24 18 11 8 11 8 5 6 8 12 HEAT CONTENT 22 21 19 28 28 18 17 32 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 596 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 24.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -9. -14. -18. -22. -26. -31. -34. -37. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 2. -2. -8. -11. -14. -14. -14. -14. -16. -18. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 10. 11. 12. 8. 7. -2. -9. -13. -17. -20. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 15. 20. 25. 27. 21. 12. -1. -9. -23. -34. -42. -49. -58. -65. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 30.2 62.6 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172020 PAULETTE 09/13/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 6.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.93 3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.16 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.77 2.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.81 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.53 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 729.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.17 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 47.3 27.5 to 139.6 0.18 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.20 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 43.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.56 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.9% 21.3% 16.9% 13.5% 0.0% 13.4% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.8% 11.9% 11.5% 3.7% 0.6% 1.6% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 8.9% 0.6% 2.1% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 10.2% 11.2% 10.2% 6.1% 0.2% 5.0% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 11.0% 41.0% 19.0% 16.0% 1.0% 9.0% 2.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172020 PAULETTE 09/13/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172020 PAULETTE 09/13/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 10( 15) 17( 29) 22( 45) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 1 0( 1) 0( 1) 0( 1) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 80 85 90 95 100 102 96 87 74 66 52 41 33 26 17 DIS 18HR AGO 75 74 79 84 89 94 96 90 81 68 60 46 35 27 20 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 75 72 71 76 81 86 88 82 73 60 52 38 27 19 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 70 75 77 71 62 49 41 27 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR 75 80 85 76 70 66 68 62 53 40 32 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS