* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAULETTE AL172020 09/13/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 75 80 85 90 98 102 99 91 79 71 61 50 42 36 27 19 V (KT) LAND 70 75 80 85 90 98 102 99 91 79 71 61 50 42 36 27 19 V (KT) LGEM 70 74 79 84 90 101 104 95 81 65 54 44 38 38 39 40 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 3 4 3 2 4 12 22 42 48 50 41 25 19 19 21 31 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -4 -4 -4 2 8 4 3 6 0 0 0 3 1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 122 198 338 5 216 211 207 216 220 243 248 257 256 268 277 297 305 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.5 28.2 27.8 27.6 27.4 25.2 25.3 24.0 22.0 22.4 22.3 21.7 22.4 POT. INT. (KT) 143 141 141 140 144 141 137 134 131 109 109 97 85 88 87 83 87 ADJ. POT. INT. 125 122 123 122 123 121 120 115 111 94 92 81 73 75 74 71 74 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.8 -51.5 -51.5 -51.3 -51.0 -51.0 -50.8 -51.1 -50.9 -51.8 -52.5 -53.2 -53.6 -54.4 -54.7 -55.5 200 MB VXT (C) 1.6 1.7 1.9 2.2 1.8 1.6 1.6 2.3 1.7 1.5 1.6 1.8 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.1 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 10 8 4 2 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 37 37 36 37 38 43 41 38 33 28 28 31 35 41 44 49 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 27 27 29 30 33 37 38 38 36 37 33 29 26 24 22 20 850 MB ENV VOR 48 39 30 11 13 36 43 40 43 31 19 -20 -30 -32 -48 -58 -58 200 MB DIV -7 -9 -22 6 39 40 104 104 45 13 -11 -11 7 -21 -13 -28 -20 700-850 TADV 6 1 0 -1 4 0 1 -21 -37 -30 -38 -8 -2 -10 -10 -6 -8 LAND (KM) 1319 1344 1264 1147 1036 906 884 854 781 740 852 1014 1138 1288 1461 1591 1684 LAT (DEG N) 29.6 30.2 30.7 31.8 32.8 34.9 36.7 38.6 39.7 41.1 42.6 43.5 43.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 61.4 62.5 63.5 64.3 65.0 64.2 60.1 55.9 52.2 48.1 44.0 41.0 39.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 12 11 14 19 17 16 17 15 9 7 8 7 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 17 21 21 19 30 21 17 21 31 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 586 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 26.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -3. -5. -7. -10. -13. -17. -21. -24. -28. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 2. -3. -9. -13. -15. -16. -16. -17. -18. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -9. -10. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 10. 10. 7. 8. 2. -5. -9. -11. -14. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 4. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 15. 20. 28. 32. 29. 21. 9. 1. -9. -20. -28. -34. -43. -51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 29.6 61.4 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172020 PAULETTE 09/13/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.97 3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.14 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.73 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.88 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.57 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 662.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.25 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.8 27.5 to 139.6 0.23 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.14 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 71.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.28 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.1% 20.7% 15.5% 0.0% 0.0% 15.8% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.8% 13.3% 12.9% 3.8% 0.8% 2.3% 0.9% 0.0% Bayesian: 4.0% 4.9% 4.6% 1.8% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.0% 13.0% 11.0% 1.8% 0.3% 6.1% 0.3% 0.0% DTOPS: 21.0% 40.0% 18.0% 12.0% 1.0% 11.0% 2.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172020 PAULETTE 09/13/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172020 PAULETTE 09/13/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 7( 11) 12( 21) 21( 38) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 75 80 85 90 98 102 99 91 79 71 61 50 42 36 27 19 18HR AGO 70 69 74 79 84 92 96 93 85 73 65 55 44 36 30 21 DIS 12HR AGO 70 67 66 71 76 84 88 85 77 65 57 47 36 28 22 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 65 73 77 74 66 54 46 36 25 17 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT