* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAULETTE AL172020 09/13/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 69 73 76 81 87 93 97 91 82 72 66 53 42 31 20 N/A V (KT) LAND 65 69 73 76 81 87 93 97 91 82 72 66 53 42 31 20 N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 68 73 77 82 91 97 95 83 70 57 47 38 34 33 31 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 7 3 3 4 6 5 15 29 43 49 50 37 27 24 33 49 49 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -3 -4 -6 -1 4 10 3 8 4 2 0 2 1 -2 3 SHEAR DIR 187 117 128 324 349 212 214 206 228 233 251 252 254 282 303 328 348 SST (C) 28.9 28.6 28.5 28.3 28.1 28.3 27.7 27.8 27.7 27.3 25.3 23.6 23.8 20.4 20.9 20.2 22.1 POT. INT. (KT) 151 146 144 141 138 141 134 136 136 131 110 96 96 80 81 79 86 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 128 125 121 117 119 115 117 117 112 94 82 81 71 71 70 74 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.2 -51.7 -51.4 -51.2 -50.8 -50.8 -50.5 -51.2 -51.4 -51.7 -52.7 -53.0 -53.1 -54.0 -54.5 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 1.7 1.8 2.0 2.4 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.3 0.6 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 10 10 6 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 700-500 MB RH 37 37 36 36 37 40 43 39 34 32 28 26 30 34 43 46 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 28 29 28 30 31 34 39 38 36 35 36 30 27 23 20 16 850 MB ENV VOR 50 52 43 30 10 21 39 47 42 31 10 -12 -37 -63 -69 -68 -46 200 MB DIV 7 -5 -7 -22 11 46 67 105 65 32 -12 -17 -20 -13 -37 -70 -53 700-850 TADV 13 5 1 1 -2 6 3 -7 -25 -12 -57 -18 -19 -2 -1 2 4 LAND (KM) 1317 1329 1356 1248 1136 1021 936 913 881 738 760 889 1011 1171 1349 1521 1677 LAT (DEG N) 29.1 29.7 30.3 31.0 31.7 33.5 35.4 36.9 38.5 40.2 41.7 43.0 43.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 60.2 61.4 62.6 63.5 64.4 64.7 62.5 59.1 55.5 51.2 46.6 43.1 40.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 11 10 9 10 14 16 18 19 16 12 10 10 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 25 20 25 21 18 24 12 18 24 32 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 654 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -14. -17. -21. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 1. -5. -11. -15. -17. -19. -21. -25. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. 1. 1. 4. 10. 9. 6. 4. 4. -4. -9. -14. -16. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 11. 16. 22. 28. 32. 27. 17. 7. 1. -12. -23. -34. -45. -57. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 29.1 60.2 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172020 PAULETTE 09/13/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.92 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.14 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.48 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.94 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.63 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 617.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.29 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.0 27.5 to 139.6 0.29 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.12 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 67.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.32 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.8% 19.3% 14.4% 0.0% 0.0% 13.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.1% 8.7% 7.8% 1.6% 0.3% 1.7% 1.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 3.2% 1.8% 4.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.4% 9.9% 8.8% 0.7% 0.1% 5.2% 0.5% 0.0% DTOPS: 10.0% 21.0% 8.0% 5.0% 0.0% 10.0% 3.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172020 PAULETTE 09/13/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172020 PAULETTE 09/13/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 4( 6) 8( 13) 10( 22) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 69 73 76 81 87 93 97 91 82 72 66 53 42 31 20 DIS 18HR AGO 65 64 68 71 76 82 88 92 86 77 67 61 48 37 26 15 DIS 12HR AGO 65 62 61 64 69 75 81 85 79 70 60 54 41 30 19 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 60 66 72 76 70 61 51 45 32 21 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT