* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAULETTE AL172020 09/13/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 68 73 77 80 90 96 99 95 91 84 77 67 58 51 44 33 V (KT) LAND 65 68 73 77 80 90 96 99 95 91 84 77 67 58 51 44 33 V (KT) LGEM 65 68 71 75 80 89 97 97 90 79 67 56 48 43 41 41 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 15 7 3 0 5 3 12 25 37 36 30 32 27 23 19 25 56 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -4 -2 -6 -6 0 5 7 2 8 5 5 2 2 0 -6 SHEAR DIR 175 181 141 79 307 251 216 205 209 208 218 245 231 246 242 267 295 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.5 28.1 28.3 28.1 27.8 27.7 27.7 25.6 25.1 22.5 20.7 19.7 19.7 17.5 POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 148 145 138 140 138 136 135 135 113 108 91 81 77 77 72 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 133 129 126 119 118 117 118 116 115 97 93 79 71 68 68 66 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.4 -52.1 -51.7 -51.4 -51.0 -50.7 -50.7 -50.6 -51.3 -51.5 -52.3 -52.7 -53.2 -53.3 -54.4 -55.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 1.4 1.4 1.5 2.2 2.0 1.7 1.7 2.2 1.6 1.3 1.0 0.6 0.9 1.3 1.5 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 10 10 9 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 38 38 38 37 37 39 45 41 36 36 36 36 32 30 33 43 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 27 28 28 28 32 34 37 37 38 37 37 35 32 30 28 26 850 MB ENV VOR 55 47 48 40 26 18 41 45 27 35 16 -1 -27 -27 0 12 -55 200 MB DIV 26 3 -5 2 -15 30 50 87 89 72 29 -2 7 32 9 9 -34 700-850 TADV 13 11 7 0 0 4 0 -1 -11 -19 7 17 8 7 3 -9 -20 LAND (KM) 1324 1313 1315 1349 1228 1052 959 887 894 845 712 730 905 1092 1231 1366 1504 LAT (DEG N) 28.6 29.1 29.6 30.3 30.9 32.6 34.3 36.1 37.6 39.1 40.7 42.5 44.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 59.1 60.3 61.5 62.6 63.8 64.9 64.3 61.6 57.7 53.9 50.0 46.0 42.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 10 9 11 16 17 17 17 17 14 9 7 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 28 25 21 25 19 26 22 16 17 21 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 622 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -16. -19. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 3. -0. -4. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -10. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 6. 9. 10. 10. 9. 7. 4. -1. -3. -6. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 12. 15. 25. 31. 34. 30. 26. 19. 12. 2. -7. -14. -21. -31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 28.6 59.1 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172020 PAULETTE 09/13/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.86 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.16 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.58 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.94 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.72 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 589.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.32 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 63.5 27.5 to 139.6 0.32 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.15 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 69.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.31 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.4% 20.9% 15.3% 0.0% 0.0% 16.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.1% 23.5% 23.0% 7.4% 2.3% 9.0% 2.5% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.8% 1.0% 1.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 5.7% 15.1% 13.4% 2.5% 0.8% 8.6% 0.9% 0.0% DTOPS: 13.0% 34.0% 21.0% 14.0% 2.0% 9.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172020 PAULETTE 09/13/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172020 PAULETTE 09/13/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 4( 6) 7( 13) 12( 23) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 68 73 77 80 90 96 99 95 91 84 77 67 58 51 44 33 18HR AGO 65 64 69 73 76 86 92 95 91 87 80 73 63 54 47 40 29 12HR AGO 65 62 61 65 68 78 84 87 83 79 72 65 55 46 39 32 21 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 58 68 74 77 73 69 62 55 45 36 29 22 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT