* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAULETTE AL172020 09/12/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 62 65 70 73 82 90 94 97 95 89 82 72 62 53 44 34 V (KT) LAND 60 62 65 70 73 82 90 94 97 95 89 82 72 62 53 44 34 V (KT) LGEM 60 61 63 66 70 80 89 94 92 84 74 62 51 45 42 41 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 20 14 7 1 1 7 7 18 29 37 39 27 26 25 29 34 50 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -3 -3 -6 -3 0 7 -2 0 5 8 5 3 -2 1 SHEAR DIR 181 179 197 185 254 332 220 219 201 211 203 213 234 245 233 222 208 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.6 28.5 28.1 28.3 27.7 27.8 27.6 27.5 24.0 25.4 23.0 18.1 14.5 13.0 POT. INT. (KT) 154 152 151 146 144 138 141 134 136 134 132 100 111 94 77 70 68 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 134 132 128 125 117 118 114 117 114 112 87 94 82 71 66 65 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.2 -52.2 -52.0 -51.5 -51.2 -50.6 -50.7 -50.4 -50.9 -51.1 -51.4 -52.4 -53.4 -53.6 -54.4 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 0.8 1.3 1.5 1.8 2.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.1 1.4 0.9 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 6 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 38 38 38 38 38 38 42 45 43 42 44 39 39 40 47 48 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 27 27 29 28 31 33 34 39 39 39 38 35 34 32 30 28 850 MB ENV VOR 49 49 40 43 36 13 22 43 38 34 38 8 -15 -25 9 -5 -4 200 MB DIV 19 25 2 -6 0 10 42 53 117 90 91 27 44 33 57 62 62 700-850 TADV 14 9 11 6 2 0 4 1 -13 -26 -13 -4 21 27 27 -29 -79 LAND (KM) 1349 1330 1322 1333 1358 1145 1021 941 907 872 745 664 772 909 1073 1323 1397 LAT (DEG N) 28.1 28.6 29.1 29.7 30.3 31.7 33.5 35.2 36.7 38.3 40.0 41.5 42.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 57.9 59.0 60.1 61.3 62.5 64.3 64.7 63.0 59.6 56.2 52.7 49.0 44.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 12 11 9 9 13 16 16 16 16 16 17 18 16 15 HEAT CONTENT 28 27 25 20 24 17 24 13 16 17 37 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 13 CX,CY: -9/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 610 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -2. -5. -8. -12. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 5. 1. -3. -6. -9. -11. -14. -16. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 1. 3. 6. 8. 13. 14. 13. 10. 6. 3. 0. -3. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 10. 13. 22. 30. 34. 37. 35. 29. 22. 12. 2. -7. -16. -26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 28.1 57.9 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172020 PAULETTE 09/12/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.77 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.16 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.51 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.99 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.70 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 541.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.37 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.39 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.17 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 62.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.38 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.5% 19.2% 13.9% 0.0% 0.0% 13.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.0% 15.0% 14.5% 4.9% 1.5% 5.3% 1.6% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 3.7% 11.4% 9.6% 1.6% 0.5% 6.1% 0.6% 0.0% DTOPS: 5.0% 26.0% 15.0% 4.0% 2.0% 16.0% 3.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172020 PAULETTE 09/12/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172020 PAULETTE 09/12/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 2( 2) 4( 6) 8( 13) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 62 65 70 73 82 90 94 97 95 89 82 72 62 53 44 34 18HR AGO 60 59 62 67 70 79 87 91 94 92 86 79 69 59 50 41 31 12HR AGO 60 57 56 61 64 73 81 85 88 86 80 73 63 53 44 35 25 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 53 62 70 74 77 75 69 62 52 42 33 24 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT