* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAULETTE AL172020 09/12/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 61 64 67 72 82 90 94 98 98 95 88 80 68 59 49 36 V (KT) LAND 60 61 64 67 72 82 90 94 98 98 95 88 80 68 59 49 36 V (KT) LGEM 60 61 63 66 69 79 89 95 96 91 81 71 58 49 44 42 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 26 20 13 6 2 4 6 10 22 34 34 31 23 27 22 35 50 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 2 1 -3 -6 -7 0 2 2 -2 3 4 3 6 9 23 SHEAR DIR 182 181 180 191 147 320 246 218 191 215 200 202 208 226 215 214 213 SST (C) 28.9 29.1 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.2 28.4 28.2 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.3 22.2 21.1 18.4 15.7 12.7 POT. INT. (KT) 151 154 154 151 148 140 142 140 136 136 136 130 90 85 77 71 67 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 139 138 134 129 120 119 119 116 115 115 110 80 76 70 66 64 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.4 -52.3 -52.2 -52.0 -51.1 -50.6 -50.4 -50.5 -50.2 -50.5 -50.6 -51.3 -52.0 -53.3 -52.3 -51.1 200 MB VXT (C) 1.7 1.2 0.9 1.3 1.5 2.4 2.1 1.7 1.9 2.6 1.8 1.6 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.6 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 9 9 10 10 9 4 3 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 42 40 39 39 39 37 39 45 45 39 42 43 46 44 42 35 29 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 26 27 26 29 32 34 34 38 40 41 40 41 37 36 34 30 850 MB ENV VOR 63 50 46 34 37 23 22 36 43 17 44 21 9 1 36 63 61 200 MB DIV 10 16 28 0 -11 -8 29 41 85 110 90 73 55 43 88 72 42 700-850 TADV 16 14 13 9 6 -1 4 2 -8 -8 -20 -1 14 30 34 -41 -111 LAND (KM) 1352 1329 1321 1308 1312 1236 1039 969 914 900 881 712 647 729 862 1033 1218 LAT (DEG N) 27.1 27.8 28.5 29.1 29.6 30.9 32.5 34.2 35.9 37.4 38.7 40.4 42.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 56.6 57.8 59.0 60.3 61.6 63.7 65.1 64.3 61.4 58.3 55.1 51.5 47.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 12 10 9 12 15 14 15 17 18 17 16 14 13 HEAT CONTENT 23 28 28 25 21 19 27 22 15 20 28 33 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 13 CX,CY: -9/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 618 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. -0. -3. -7. -10. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. 0. 3. 5. 7. 6. 3. -0. -4. -6. -8. -10. -13. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 8. 8. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -13. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 2. 4. 7. 8. 12. 15. 16. 14. 14. 8. 5. 3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 13. 22. 30. 34. 38. 38. 35. 28. 20. 8. -1. -11. -24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 27.1 56.6 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172020 PAULETTE 09/12/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.61 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.16 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.52 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.99 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.60 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 520.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.39 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.2 27.5 to 139.6 0.43 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.18 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 51.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.49 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.0% 17.7% 12.7% 10.3% 0.0% 12.5% 12.8% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 5.9% 5.6% 2.0% 0.5% 2.3% 1.2% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.7% 7.9% 6.2% 4.1% 0.2% 4.9% 4.7% 0.1% DTOPS: 3.0% 15.0% 7.0% 3.0% 0.0% 23.0% 1.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172020 PAULETTE 09/12/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172020 PAULETTE 09/12/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 4( 4) 8( 12) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 61 64 67 72 82 90 94 98 98 95 88 80 68 59 49 36 18HR AGO 60 59 62 65 70 80 88 92 96 96 93 86 78 66 57 47 34 12HR AGO 60 57 56 59 64 74 82 86 90 90 87 80 72 60 51 41 28 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 55 65 73 77 81 81 78 71 63 51 42 32 19 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT