* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAULETTE AL172020 09/12/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 63 66 70 72 81 87 94 99 99 96 90 81 72 61 52 34 V (KT) LAND 60 63 66 70 72 81 87 94 99 99 96 90 81 72 61 52 34 V (KT) LGEM 60 63 66 68 72 79 88 95 98 93 86 75 64 54 46 43 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 28 22 15 10 6 3 3 8 17 29 36 36 29 29 30 47 49 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -2 -1 0 -1 -3 -1 -5 0 5 1 0 1 3 5 15 24 SHEAR DIR 190 181 174 177 236 313 338 201 212 197 218 200 192 186 205 214 221 SST (C) 28.5 28.9 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.5 28.2 28.4 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.5 18.4 16.6 15.9 12.7 POT. INT. (KT) 145 151 154 152 149 144 139 142 136 136 136 134 132 77 74 73 69 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 137 138 134 131 126 118 118 114 116 116 111 110 72 70 68 66 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -52.2 -52.1 -52.0 -51.4 -50.9 -50.3 -50.5 -50.1 -50.5 -50.2 -50.9 -51.6 -52.1 -50.4 -48.4 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 1.5 1.3 1.1 1.4 1.7 2.6 1.7 1.8 2.2 2.3 1.9 1.2 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 6 3 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 43 42 40 40 39 38 38 41 46 38 40 44 43 40 41 23 29 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 27 27 29 27 31 32 34 37 39 42 42 40 40 37 37 31 850 MB ENV VOR 67 60 49 44 33 30 9 18 50 43 33 34 3 21 95 85 -12 200 MB DIV 4 13 11 16 0 7 15 31 46 93 115 107 80 88 99 57 20 700-850 TADV 18 15 12 11 8 1 -1 3 0 -10 -9 -11 -8 -17 32 -167 110 LAND (KM) 1382 1352 1340 1330 1332 1342 1112 993 897 843 855 816 633 463 568 742 928 LAT (DEG N) 26.4 27.2 28.0 28.6 29.2 30.2 31.5 33.0 34.8 36.4 37.8 39.3 41.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 55.5 56.7 57.9 59.0 60.1 62.7 64.8 65.4 64.6 62.0 58.4 55.3 53.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 12 11 12 12 9 8 11 15 15 13 15 18 19 18 18 HEAT CONTENT 25 24 28 27 24 24 19 28 18 15 20 21 28 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 14 CX,CY: -9/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 639 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 1. -2. -5. -9. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -1. -1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 4. -0. -4. -7. -10. -12. -17. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. -14. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 4. 5. 7. 11. 14. 17. 16. 13. 11. 7. 5. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 12. 21. 27. 34. 39. 39. 36. 30. 21. 12. 1. -8. -26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 26.4 55.5 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172020 PAULETTE 09/12/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.49 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.17 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.68 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.99 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.66 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 502.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.41 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.6 27.5 to 139.6 0.42 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.18 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 20.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.79 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.9% 20.2% 14.5% 12.0% 11.3% 13.2% 13.1% 0.0% Logistic: 6.3% 10.1% 9.2% 3.4% 1.0% 5.5% 2.2% 0.5% Bayesian: 1.4% 0.7% 2.8% 0.3% 0.0% 1.2% 0.4% 0.0% Consensus: 5.2% 10.3% 8.8% 5.3% 4.1% 6.6% 5.2% 0.2% DTOPS: 5.0% 11.0% 7.0% 2.0% 1.0% 8.0% 0.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172020 PAULETTE 09/12/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172020 PAULETTE 09/12/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 3( 3) 4( 7) 8( 14) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 1( 1) 0( 1) 2( 3) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 63 66 70 72 81 87 94 99 99 96 90 81 72 61 52 34 18HR AGO 60 59 62 66 68 77 83 90 95 95 92 86 77 68 57 48 30 12HR AGO 60 57 56 60 62 71 77 84 89 89 86 80 71 62 51 42 24 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 52 61 67 74 79 79 76 70 61 52 41 32 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT