* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAULETTE AL172020 09/12/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 56 57 60 67 77 85 93 99 96 94 85 80 70 58 43 V (KT) LAND 55 55 56 57 60 67 77 85 93 99 96 94 85 80 70 58 43 V (KT) LGEM 55 55 55 57 59 64 73 83 92 93 87 78 68 64 55 48 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 35 28 23 18 12 1 3 4 8 23 37 36 27 23 28 41 59 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 -2 -2 1 -2 -5 -5 -2 2 3 -4 -1 1 9 19 19 SHEAR DIR 201 191 187 185 195 46 318 304 216 200 213 209 204 201 198 208 215 SST (C) 28.4 28.5 28.8 29.2 29.0 28.6 28.2 28.4 28.2 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.3 26.3 18.4 15.2 13.8 POT. INT. (KT) 144 145 149 156 152 146 140 142 139 134 133 133 129 119 78 73 72 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 132 134 139 135 129 121 119 116 114 113 111 108 101 72 69 69 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -52.4 -52.2 -52.0 -51.0 -50.6 -50.2 -50.2 -50.0 -50.4 -50.2 -50.8 -51.1 -50.6 -48.1 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.1 1.4 1.1 1.1 1.3 2.5 2.2 1.7 2.0 2.6 2.2 1.8 1.4 0.7 0.4 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 10 10 9 10 10 10 5 3 2 2 3 2 0 0 700-500 MB RH 46 44 43 43 41 39 36 39 44 44 38 43 47 49 40 28 27 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 25 26 27 28 29 32 34 36 40 40 42 41 43 43 41 37 850 MB ENV VOR 90 74 63 56 44 44 24 19 40 54 26 22 -1 -10 37 112 91 200 MB DIV 11 -1 -5 9 15 0 -10 22 52 68 82 69 87 120 115 70 32 700-850 TADV 21 14 14 12 14 3 1 2 3 -6 -3 -14 4 8 6 -54 -125 LAND (KM) 1416 1379 1359 1342 1337 1330 1250 1044 975 893 814 784 748 563 491 613 894 LAT (DEG N) 25.4 26.3 27.1 27.8 28.5 29.6 30.8 32.2 33.8 35.5 37.2 38.7 40.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 54.3 55.4 56.5 57.6 58.7 61.1 63.6 65.2 65.1 63.4 60.6 57.5 54.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 12 12 12 12 11 8 9 13 14 14 14 16 19 22 24 HEAT CONTENT 37 26 23 28 27 20 20 26 24 14 17 19 18 6 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 14 CX,CY: -9/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 618 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 31.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 2. -2. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. 1. 3. 5. 4. 1. -4. -7. -9. -12. -15. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 15. 15. 17. 15. 16. 14. 11. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 1. 2. 5. 12. 22. 30. 38. 44. 41. 39. 30. 25. 15. 3. -12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 25.4 54.3 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172020 PAULETTE 09/12/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.25 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.19 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.15 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.53 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 433.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.49 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.46 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.16 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.93 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.4% 11.6% 8.2% 6.9% 5.7% 9.6% 10.1% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 2.4% 1.5% 0.6% 0.2% 1.1% 1.3% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 4.7% 3.3% 2.5% 2.0% 3.6% 3.8% 0.1% DTOPS: 2.0% 7.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% 3.0% 6.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172020 PAULETTE 09/12/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172020 PAULETTE 09/12/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 55 56 57 60 67 77 85 93 99 96 94 85 80 70 58 43 18HR AGO 55 54 55 56 59 66 76 84 92 98 95 93 84 79 69 57 42 12HR AGO 55 52 51 52 55 62 72 80 88 94 91 89 80 75 65 53 38 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 48 55 65 73 81 87 84 82 73 68 58 46 31 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT