* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAULETTE AL172020 09/11/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 56 56 58 65 72 80 89 95 95 93 87 81 73 64 49 V (KT) LAND 55 55 56 56 58 65 72 80 89 95 95 93 87 81 73 64 49 V (KT) LGEM 55 55 55 55 56 61 69 78 87 92 90 84 76 69 63 56 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 35 34 28 22 19 6 3 4 1 11 24 34 31 24 33 43 60 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 4 0 -2 1 -3 -2 -4 0 8 1 1 1 4 2 2 SHEAR DIR 212 207 205 195 194 230 332 359 158 208 206 217 201 199 209 219 220 SST (C) 28.1 28.2 28.5 28.6 29.0 29.0 28.6 28.1 28.4 28.1 27.7 27.8 27.5 27.8 27.4 20.7 19.7 POT. INT. (KT) 139 140 144 146 152 152 146 138 141 137 133 135 132 135 130 82 79 ADJ. POT. INT. 126 126 130 131 136 135 129 119 118 114 112 115 111 111 106 73 71 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -52.8 -52.4 -52.1 -51.3 -50.6 -49.9 -50.1 -49.7 -50.0 -49.7 -50.4 -51.0 -51.2 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.9 1.4 1.8 2.9 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.8 1.9 1.4 0.8 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 9 9 10 10 10 11 11 8 4 4 4 5 4 3 1 700-500 MB RH 49 47 47 46 45 42 40 37 38 46 41 40 40 42 35 26 27 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 25 26 25 26 29 31 33 36 39 40 41 41 41 41 41 38 850 MB ENV VOR 96 88 81 71 58 37 28 8 15 49 51 28 19 -8 20 34 -119 200 MB DIV 13 -2 9 1 11 4 4 9 34 53 96 89 79 63 85 26 26 700-850 TADV 18 18 14 11 12 6 2 0 0 2 0 1 5 18 31 23 -50 LAND (KM) 1451 1405 1369 1347 1338 1330 1333 1195 1035 961 919 874 904 845 685 558 531 LAT (DEG N) 24.2 24.9 25.6 26.4 27.2 28.6 29.8 31.2 32.6 34.1 35.5 36.8 37.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 53.2 54.1 55.0 56.0 56.9 59.0 61.6 64.0 65.1 64.7 62.8 60.1 56.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 12 12 12 13 10 8 9 11 14 14 11 12 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 26 32 32 23 25 27 21 18 27 22 13 16 15 21 31 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 12 CX,CY: -8/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 660 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. 1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. 0. 2. 3. 2. -2. -5. -7. -10. -14. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 11. 14. 16. 17. 16. 14. 12. 11. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 3. 10. 17. 25. 34. 40. 40. 38. 32. 26. 18. 9. -6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 24.2 53.2 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172020 PAULETTE 09/11/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.09 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.18 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.49 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.39 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 381.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.54 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.9 27.5 to 139.6 0.42 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.17 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.8% 12.5% 9.0% 0.0% 0.0% 9.8% 9.0% 9.7% Logistic: 1.5% 1.9% 1.2% 0.9% 0.4% 1.5% 1.1% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 4.9% 3.5% 0.3% 0.1% 3.8% 3.4% 3.3% DTOPS: 3.0% 9.0% 5.0% 3.0% 1.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172020 PAULETTE 09/11/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172020 PAULETTE 09/11/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 2( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 55 56 56 58 65 72 80 89 95 95 93 87 81 73 64 49 18HR AGO 55 54 55 55 57 64 71 79 88 94 94 92 86 80 72 63 48 12HR AGO 55 52 51 51 53 60 67 75 84 90 90 88 82 76 68 59 44 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 47 54 61 69 78 84 84 82 76 70 62 53 38 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT