* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAULETTE AL172020 09/11/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 54 54 52 53 58 66 75 81 89 92 94 88 82 76 68 60 V (KT) LAND 55 54 54 52 53 58 66 75 81 89 92 94 88 82 76 68 60 V (KT) LGEM 55 55 54 54 54 56 61 69 78 87 91 86 80 73 66 62 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 36 33 30 29 22 13 3 2 5 0 11 26 26 27 20 23 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 3 4 0 3 -2 -2 -3 1 2 8 3 7 4 6 6 SHEAR DIR 213 212 206 207 198 195 209 281 32 104 194 217 202 213 207 195 210 SST (C) 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.4 28.5 29.1 29.0 28.5 28.3 28.1 28.1 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.1 19.8 POT. INT. (KT) 135 137 138 143 144 154 153 144 140 137 138 134 133 131 131 126 79 ADJ. POT. INT. 121 124 125 129 129 137 135 125 118 115 116 114 113 109 107 103 71 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -52.3 -51.9 -51.1 -50.6 -50.1 -50.2 -50.3 -50.4 -50.6 -51.1 -51.8 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 1.4 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.4 1.4 2.2 2.0 1.5 1.6 2.0 1.9 1.6 1.2 1.1 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 9 10 9 10 10 11 7 5 4 5 4 3 0 700-500 MB RH 52 50 51 50 50 47 45 40 41 42 48 41 42 42 42 37 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 24 25 24 24 27 30 32 33 36 37 40 40 41 41 40 39 850 MB ENV VOR 108 94 95 79 72 50 42 15 13 19 46 39 51 34 1 -8 29 200 MB DIV 39 16 14 4 5 16 15 0 24 36 82 90 115 68 57 83 67 700-850 TADV 12 16 13 12 13 13 6 0 0 0 0 0 -1 16 11 4 -30 LAND (KM) 1553 1492 1438 1399 1370 1334 1322 1344 1238 1140 1037 993 1029 998 823 615 402 LAT (DEG N) 23.2 23.9 24.5 25.3 26.0 27.4 28.8 30.0 31.2 32.6 34.2 35.4 36.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 51.7 52.6 53.5 54.4 55.3 57.2 59.5 61.9 63.5 63.9 62.9 60.6 57.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 11 11 11 12 12 11 8 8 10 13 13 12 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 23 23 27 35 29 27 27 21 20 21 21 11 14 16 29 20 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 612 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 32.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. 2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -5. -6. -5. -3. -1. 2. 3. 1. -1. -4. -5. -7. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -13. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. 2. 6. 8. 9. 13. 14. 17. 16. 16. 15. 11. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -3. -2. 3. 12. 20. 26. 34. 37. 39. 33. 27. 21. 13. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 23.2 51.7 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172020 PAULETTE 09/11/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.18 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 32.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.12 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.42 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 321.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.60 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.6 27.5 to 139.6 0.38 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.21 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.96 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.7% 8.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.6% 7.6% 9.7% Logistic: 0.8% 1.1% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.5% 0.5% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 3.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 2.7% 2.7% 3.3% DTOPS: 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 8.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172020 PAULETTE 09/11/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172020 PAULETTE 09/11/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 54 54 52 53 58 66 75 81 89 92 94 88 82 76 68 60 18HR AGO 55 54 54 52 53 58 66 75 81 89 92 94 88 82 76 68 60 12HR AGO 55 52 51 49 50 55 63 72 78 86 89 91 85 79 73 65 57 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 46 51 59 68 74 82 85 87 81 75 69 61 53 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT