* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAULETTE AL172020 09/11/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 54 54 54 56 61 69 80 84 90 92 88 86 79 73 64 V (KT) LAND 55 55 54 54 54 56 61 69 80 84 90 92 88 86 79 73 64 V (KT) LGEM 55 57 57 57 56 57 61 70 80 89 94 94 89 82 76 72 63 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 39 34 32 30 28 16 10 3 4 1 9 19 28 25 23 32 46 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 2 2 2 0 0 -1 -3 -1 0 5 0 1 0 2 5 SHEAR DIR 221 216 211 205 209 197 231 295 322 294 240 204 228 209 196 192 211 SST (C) 27.8 27.9 27.9 28.1 28.5 29.0 29.3 29.2 28.6 28.1 28.4 28.2 27.8 27.6 27.5 27.2 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 134 135 135 138 144 152 157 156 145 137 141 139 135 132 131 127 104 ADJ. POT. INT. 121 122 122 125 130 136 140 137 125 115 116 117 114 111 109 105 88 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -52.4 -52.2 -51.5 -51.1 -50.0 -50.2 -49.7 -50.1 -49.7 -49.8 -50.3 -50.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.2 1.3 0.9 1.4 1.4 2.4 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.7 2.0 2.1 1.8 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 9 10 9 10 11 11 9 6 5 6 6 4 1 700-500 MB RH 52 52 51 52 51 50 49 44 40 41 46 48 48 49 46 39 32 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 22 22 24 23 25 28 30 34 35 38 40 41 43 43 44 42 850 MB ENV VOR 107 103 95 96 80 65 50 39 25 7 38 68 49 74 44 37 79 200 MB DIV 13 32 23 -3 0 23 17 9 5 31 50 86 104 108 93 101 46 700-850 TADV 11 10 13 13 13 10 9 4 0 3 2 1 5 6 17 4 5 LAND (KM) 1586 1519 1457 1406 1364 1335 1319 1307 1328 1136 1051 997 997 996 895 736 489 LAT (DEG N) 22.7 23.2 23.7 24.4 25.1 26.7 28.1 29.3 30.3 31.7 33.1 34.3 35.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 51.2 52.1 52.9 53.8 54.7 56.4 58.4 60.9 63.0 64.4 64.7 63.5 60.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 11 11 11 12 12 9 8 7 10 12 12 11 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 24 25 26 29 35 25 30 25 25 18 27 25 12 16 17 17 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 670 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -5. -3. -1. 0. -0. -2. -4. -6. -8. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -12. -15. -17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 6. 12. 12. 16. 18. 18. 19. 17. 16. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 6. 14. 25. 29. 35. 37. 33. 31. 24. 18. 9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 22.7 51.2 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172020 PAULETTE 09/11/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 32.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.18 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.46 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.29 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 306.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.62 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.9 27.5 to 139.6 0.37 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.20 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.97 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.9% 13.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 9.3% Logistic: 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 4.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 3.1% DTOPS: 2.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172020 PAULETTE 09/11/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172020 PAULETTE 09/11/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 55 54 54 54 56 61 69 80 84 90 92 88 86 79 73 64 18HR AGO 55 54 53 53 53 55 60 68 79 83 89 91 87 85 78 72 63 12HR AGO 55 52 51 51 51 53 58 66 77 81 87 89 85 83 76 70 61 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 45 47 52 60 71 75 81 83 79 77 70 64 55 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT