* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAULETTE AL172020 09/11/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 54 53 53 54 60 67 75 84 91 93 91 89 85 81 76 V (KT) LAND 55 55 54 53 53 54 60 67 75 84 91 93 91 89 85 81 76 V (KT) LGEM 55 57 58 57 56 55 57 64 74 84 91 94 91 84 77 73 70 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 44 39 34 31 29 21 12 6 4 6 9 17 35 34 26 25 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 4 4 4 1 2 -3 -5 -5 -4 -2 2 0 5 -1 2 SHEAR DIR 220 225 216 214 208 203 217 250 303 310 259 224 228 242 235 224 218 SST (C) 27.8 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.8 29.3 29.4 28.7 28.2 28.7 28.3 27.9 27.9 27.5 27.6 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 134 135 135 137 140 149 157 159 148 139 145 141 136 136 130 132 111 ADJ. POT. INT. 121 123 123 123 126 133 140 142 129 119 120 119 115 113 107 110 94 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -53.1 -53.0 -53.0 -52.2 -52.1 -51.6 -51.0 -50.3 -50.1 -50.1 -50.5 -50.0 -49.3 -49.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.6 0.6 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.6 2.0 2.0 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 10 9 10 9 10 10 11 7 4 3 5 6 3 700-500 MB RH 53 52 51 51 52 50 47 47 42 43 48 56 55 58 56 56 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 20 21 22 23 26 27 29 33 36 37 39 44 46 48 48 850 MB ENV VOR 104 100 96 94 88 71 57 51 27 20 46 62 34 48 69 74 119 200 MB DIV -7 11 33 18 -9 3 18 -7 -3 16 29 51 71 109 90 62 125 700-850 TADV 11 10 4 11 15 14 14 7 0 0 2 0 4 12 32 30 33 LAND (KM) 1658 1578 1503 1442 1389 1337 1325 1307 1337 1145 979 969 915 898 944 846 626 LAT (DEG N) 22.4 22.9 23.4 24.0 24.6 26.1 27.6 28.9 30.1 31.2 32.5 33.9 35.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 50.4 51.3 52.3 53.2 54.1 55.8 57.6 60.0 62.5 64.6 65.8 65.0 62.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 10 11 11 12 12 12 9 7 10 12 10 9 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 22 24 25 26 31 28 30 28 25 18 31 24 14 14 16 18 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 611 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. 6. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -9. -7. -5. -4. -4. -6. -10. -12. -13. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 4. 5. 7. 12. 16. 17. 17. 22. 23. 22. 22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 5. 12. 20. 29. 36. 38. 36. 34. 30. 26. 21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 22.4 50.4 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172020 PAULETTE 09/11/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 35.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.17 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.18 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.31 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 309.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.62 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.3 27.5 to 139.6 0.36 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.18 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.2% 9.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.5% Logistic: 1.0% 0.7% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.7% 0.8% 0.8% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 3.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 2.8% DTOPS: 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 12.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172020 PAULETTE 09/11/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172020 PAULETTE 09/11/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 55 54 53 53 54 60 67 75 84 91 93 91 89 85 81 76 18HR AGO 55 54 53 52 52 53 59 66 74 83 90 92 90 88 84 80 75 12HR AGO 55 52 51 50 50 51 57 64 72 81 88 90 88 86 82 78 73 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 45 46 52 59 67 76 83 85 83 81 77 73 68 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT