* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAULETTE AL172020 09/10/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 43 41 39 39 41 44 51 62 70 78 82 85 84 79 76 75 V (KT) LAND 45 43 41 39 39 41 44 51 62 70 78 82 85 84 79 76 75 V (KT) LGEM 45 43 40 38 37 36 36 39 46 56 68 79 86 87 84 80 77 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 40 43 39 31 28 26 17 9 4 5 4 4 15 18 20 16 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 1 6 8 4 -2 0 -2 -5 -3 0 5 3 1 6 5 SHEAR DIR 218 226 230 217 214 209 193 212 158 1 37 233 212 218 207 223 208 SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.9 27.8 27.9 28.6 29.2 29.6 29.2 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.3 27.8 27.8 27.4 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 134 134 135 134 135 146 156 163 156 145 142 143 141 135 134 127 125 ADJ. POT. INT. 121 123 123 120 123 132 141 146 137 124 119 119 119 114 112 103 99 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 -53.1 -53.0 -52.9 -52.6 -52.0 -51.5 -50.5 -50.5 -50.2 -50.5 -50.3 -50.8 -50.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.9 1.3 0.9 0.7 1.2 2.0 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.4 1.6 1.2 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 9 10 11 10 7 6 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 54 54 54 52 54 53 49 47 45 45 45 49 53 56 54 51 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 20 19 20 20 22 22 25 28 30 34 34 37 40 41 42 45 850 MB ENV VOR 100 94 95 95 99 85 64 47 43 31 26 41 51 41 67 67 84 200 MB DIV 7 -1 14 26 29 12 13 21 13 17 34 32 95 85 110 105 117 700-850 TADV 15 9 7 6 9 9 13 10 8 -4 3 4 3 8 8 14 7 LAND (KM) 1727 1629 1534 1465 1401 1307 1270 1232 1219 1253 1095 1027 1032 1015 1011 1013 976 LAT (DEG N) 21.9 22.3 22.6 23.1 23.5 25.0 26.6 27.9 28.9 29.9 30.9 32.2 33.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 49.6 50.6 51.7 52.5 53.4 55.3 57.2 59.6 62.2 64.2 65.4 65.4 64.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 9 10 11 12 12 11 9 7 7 10 12 11 6 3 HEAT CONTENT 18 22 26 27 29 31 28 35 26 22 21 28 27 13 14 13 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 630 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 34.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 10. 13. 15. 16. 17. 17. 17. 16. 15. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -4. -6. -8. -10. -9. -8. -7. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -0. -1. 1. 5. 7. 11. 11. 14. 16. 16. 16. 17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -6. -6. -4. -1. 6. 17. 25. 33. 37. 40. 39. 34. 31. 30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 21.9 49.6 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172020 PAULETTE 09/10/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 36.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.16 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 34.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.06 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.23 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 234.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.70 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.0 27.5 to 139.6 0.44 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.21 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.6% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.5% 1.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172020 PAULETTE 09/10/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172020 PAULETTE 09/10/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 43 41 39 39 41 44 51 62 70 78 82 85 84 79 76 75 18HR AGO 45 44 42 40 40 42 45 52 63 71 79 83 86 85 80 77 76 12HR AGO 45 42 41 39 39 41 44 51 62 70 78 82 85 84 79 76 75 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 35 37 40 47 58 66 74 78 81 80 75 72 71 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT