* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAULETTE AL172020 09/10/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 42 39 38 36 37 38 42 50 60 68 72 75 72 73 68 69 V (KT) LAND 45 42 39 38 36 37 38 42 50 60 68 72 75 72 73 68 69 V (KT) LGEM 45 42 39 37 36 34 34 36 41 49 60 72 80 83 84 81 76 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 33 39 39 34 29 29 18 16 8 4 5 2 9 17 22 20 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 0 0 6 0 4 -1 -3 -3 -3 0 0 11 3 4 2 SHEAR DIR 217 221 222 224 219 211 200 207 193 177 5 269 234 235 240 245 223 SST (C) 27.4 27.7 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.6 29.0 29.4 29.5 29.1 28.6 28.6 28.2 28.0 27.6 27.2 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 128 133 134 135 137 145 152 159 161 154 145 143 139 138 133 126 125 ADJ. POT. INT. 116 122 122 123 124 132 137 142 143 135 123 118 117 119 113 105 101 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -53.2 -53.0 -52.4 -52.2 -51.5 -51.1 -50.6 -50.2 -50.5 -50.6 -50.5 -49.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.6 1.1 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.6 1.6 2.0 1.3 1.5 1.1 1.0 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 9 10 10 11 9 8 5 6 7 700-500 MB RH 53 54 54 54 54 54 53 51 51 48 51 51 59 62 60 57 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 21 20 21 20 21 22 25 28 31 34 34 36 36 41 41 43 850 MB ENV VOR 109 102 104 103 102 102 82 60 48 34 31 33 47 44 71 63 84 200 MB DIV 19 8 5 11 36 5 9 24 19 8 16 22 58 65 104 113 91 700-850 TADV 15 10 7 6 5 9 10 10 8 2 0 0 -1 7 5 10 1 LAND (KM) 1757 1686 1599 1517 1439 1312 1248 1235 1212 1260 1241 1128 1156 1138 1111 1092 1101 LAT (DEG N) 21.3 21.5 21.6 22.0 22.4 23.6 25.0 26.6 27.8 29.2 30.5 31.7 32.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 48.7 49.8 50.8 51.7 52.6 54.4 56.0 57.7 59.8 61.9 63.9 64.5 63.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 9 9 10 10 10 11 11 12 8 6 8 14 13 9 6 HEAT CONTENT 12 16 21 29 33 35 31 31 35 26 22 23 24 20 13 10 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 597 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 9. 13. 15. 17. 18. 18. 18. 17. 16. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -10. -9. -8. -6. -5. -5. -6. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -3. -0. 4. 6. 6. 8. 7. 11. 10. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -7. -9. -8. -7. -3. 5. 15. 23. 27. 30. 27. 28. 23. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 21.3 48.7 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172020 PAULETTE 09/10/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 34.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.15 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.50 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.32 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 247.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.68 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.44 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.21 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.5% 7.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172020 PAULETTE 09/10/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172020 PAULETTE 09/10/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 42 39 38 36 37 38 42 50 60 68 72 75 72 73 68 69 18HR AGO 45 44 41 40 38 39 40 44 52 62 70 74 77 74 75 70 71 12HR AGO 45 42 41 40 38 39 40 44 52 62 70 74 77 74 75 70 71 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 33 34 35 39 47 57 65 69 72 69 70 65 66 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT