* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAULETTE AL172020 09/10/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 49 46 43 41 41 39 42 45 53 64 70 73 77 73 71 73 V (KT) LAND 50 49 46 43 41 41 39 42 45 53 64 70 73 77 73 71 73 V (KT) LGEM 50 49 47 44 42 40 39 39 41 46 57 68 77 83 85 84 82 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 32 31 37 35 33 25 24 18 15 9 2 6 2 11 18 17 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 1 0 0 4 5 0 0 -3 -3 -5 0 4 6 0 3 SHEAR DIR 231 220 223 225 228 216 214 197 206 184 97 95 206 225 260 250 228 SST (C) 27.3 27.5 27.7 27.9 28.1 28.3 28.8 29.0 29.3 29.6 29.1 29.1 28.8 28.3 27.9 27.5 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 127 130 132 135 137 140 148 152 158 164 154 151 147 141 137 131 130 ADJ. POT. INT. 116 119 121 123 124 127 134 137 143 148 134 126 122 121 118 111 110 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.9 -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.3 -53.1 -52.9 -52.6 -52.1 -51.6 -51.0 -50.9 -50.5 -51.1 -50.7 -50.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.5 1.6 1.9 1.2 1.2 0.9 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 9 7 6 7 700-500 MB RH 54 52 55 54 55 55 57 56 52 51 49 51 52 61 63 64 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 23 20 19 18 20 20 21 22 25 29 31 33 36 36 37 40 850 MB ENV VOR 110 107 107 107 106 98 93 73 54 45 29 13 37 40 12 66 72 200 MB DIV 10 14 13 5 14 33 32 21 4 20 22 39 19 52 65 108 88 700-850 TADV 7 11 8 6 2 7 6 10 14 9 -2 -2 0 -1 7 9 11 LAND (KM) 1738 1665 1595 1523 1428 1298 1215 1181 1185 1196 1231 1180 1142 1199 1138 1154 1212 LAT (DEG N) 20.8 20.9 21.0 21.1 21.2 22.0 23.1 24.6 26.4 28.0 29.3 30.3 31.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 48.5 49.5 50.5 51.5 52.4 53.9 55.2 56.5 58.2 60.5 63.3 64.8 64.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 8 8 9 10 12 14 11 5 6 11 13 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 10 12 17 25 40 40 38 30 32 39 26 25 23 21 16 10 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 669 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 14. 15. 15. 14. 13. 12. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -13. -11. -9. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -5. -5. -2. 2. 4. 6. 9. 8. 9. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -4. -7. -9. -9. -11. -8. -5. 3. 14. 20. 23. 27. 23. 21. 23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 20.8 48.5 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172020 PAULETTE 09/10/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 33.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.14 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.32 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.73 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.24 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 279.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.65 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.8 27.5 to 139.6 0.39 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.19 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.6% 7.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172020 PAULETTE 09/10/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172020 PAULETTE 09/10/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 49 46 43 41 41 39 42 45 53 64 70 73 77 73 71 73 18HR AGO 50 49 46 43 41 41 39 42 45 53 64 70 73 77 73 71 73 12HR AGO 50 47 46 43 41 41 39 42 45 53 64 70 73 77 73 71 73 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 38 38 36 39 42 50 61 67 70 74 70 68 70 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT